Vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over Central Europe under present day and climate change conditions
Cyclones moving on a track from the Mediterranean region towards Central Europe can transport humid air masses into the Central European region. Cyclones on this track are of particular interest, as they have historically often caused major river flooding during the summer season. Such systems are...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Borntraeger
2013-12-01
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| Series: | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
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| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0514 |
| _version_ | 1827356227272704000 |
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| author | Katrin M. Nissen Uwe Ulbrich Gregor C. Leckebusch |
| author_facet | Katrin M. Nissen Uwe Ulbrich Gregor C. Leckebusch |
| author_sort | Katrin M. Nissen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Cyclones moving on a track from the Mediterranean region towards Central Europe can transport humid air masses into the Central European region. Cyclones on this track are of particular interest, as they have historically often caused major river flooding during the summer season. Such
systems are also known as Vb cyclones. In this study, an objective identification algorithm is presented, which detects the systems. The algorithm has been applied to the summer half year (April?September) of the ERA40 reanalysis data set. It is able to capture most documented historic
hazardous events in the data set. The amount of precipitation affecting the study region is found to increase with the residence time of the cyclone within the region of interest. About 41% of the Vb cyclones are associated with precipitation exceeding the daily mean 95th percentile
over Central Europe. In order to detect possible changes in the frequency and severity of Vb cyclones under rising greenhouse gas forcing, the algorithm was applied to an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5/OM1 model covering the period from 1971?2100, which were forced with 20th
century and A1B scenario greenhouse gas concentrations. For present day forcing, the model overestimates the number of Vb cyclones. The ratio between systems associated with extreme daily precipitation over the area and systems producing less impact in terms of rainfall is, however, close
to the number found in observations. For the future scenario period the simulations produce a decrease in the total number of Vb cyclones, due to an eastward shift in the most common northbound cyclone tracks. At the same time, the mean amount of precipitation associated with the Vb cyclones
increases by 16%. Due to long term climate variability this increase is not continuously statistical significant. The number of Vb cyclones associated with extreme precipitation remains stable throughout the 21st century. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T04:56:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ad0c34223f8c4a4fa8821be19d18ea20 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0941-2948 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T04:56:43Z |
| publishDate | 2013-12-01 |
| publisher | Borntraeger |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| spelling | doaj.art-ad0c34223f8c4a4fa8821be19d18ea202024-02-07T15:09:45ZengBorntraegerMeteorologische Zeitschrift0941-29482013-12-0122664966010.1127/0941-2948/2013/051482073Vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over Central Europe under present day and climate change conditionsKatrin M. NissenUwe UlbrichGregor C. LeckebuschCyclones moving on a track from the Mediterranean region towards Central Europe can transport humid air masses into the Central European region. Cyclones on this track are of particular interest, as they have historically often caused major river flooding during the summer season. Such systems are also known as Vb cyclones. In this study, an objective identification algorithm is presented, which detects the systems. The algorithm has been applied to the summer half year (April?September) of the ERA40 reanalysis data set. It is able to capture most documented historic hazardous events in the data set. The amount of precipitation affecting the study region is found to increase with the residence time of the cyclone within the region of interest. About 41% of the Vb cyclones are associated with precipitation exceeding the daily mean 95th percentile over Central Europe. In order to detect possible changes in the frequency and severity of Vb cyclones under rising greenhouse gas forcing, the algorithm was applied to an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5/OM1 model covering the period from 1971?2100, which were forced with 20th century and A1B scenario greenhouse gas concentrations. For present day forcing, the model overestimates the number of Vb cyclones. The ratio between systems associated with extreme daily precipitation over the area and systems producing less impact in terms of rainfall is, however, close to the number found in observations. For the future scenario period the simulations produce a decrease in the total number of Vb cyclones, due to an eastward shift in the most common northbound cyclone tracks. At the same time, the mean amount of precipitation associated with the Vb cyclones increases by 16%. Due to long term climate variability this increase is not continuously statistical significant. The number of Vb cyclones associated with extreme precipitation remains stable throughout the 21st century.http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0514climate changeextreme precipitationfloodingvb cyclones |
| spellingShingle | Katrin M. Nissen Uwe Ulbrich Gregor C. Leckebusch Vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over Central Europe under present day and climate change conditions Meteorologische Zeitschrift climate change extreme precipitation flooding vb cyclones |
| title | Vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over Central Europe under present day and climate change conditions |
| title_full | Vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over Central Europe under present day and climate change conditions |
| title_fullStr | Vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over Central Europe under present day and climate change conditions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over Central Europe under present day and climate change conditions |
| title_short | Vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over Central Europe under present day and climate change conditions |
| title_sort | vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over central europe under present day and climate change conditions |
| topic | climate change extreme precipitation flooding vb cyclones |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0514 |
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