Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature
BackgroundDespite an unknown cause, Kawasaki disease (KD) is currently the primary leading cause of acquired heart disease in developed countries in children and has been increasing in recent years. Research efforts have explored environmental factors related to KD, but they are still unclear especi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Pediatrics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fped.2024.1358638/full |
| _version_ | 1797198734406189056 |
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| author | Aden Kay Celis-Seposo Lina Madaniyazi Lina Madaniyazi Xerxes Seposo Xerxes Seposo Masahiro Hashizume Lay Myint Yoshida Lay Myint Yoshida Michiko Toizumi Michiko Toizumi |
| author_facet | Aden Kay Celis-Seposo Lina Madaniyazi Lina Madaniyazi Xerxes Seposo Xerxes Seposo Masahiro Hashizume Lay Myint Yoshida Lay Myint Yoshida Michiko Toizumi Michiko Toizumi |
| author_sort | Aden Kay Celis-Seposo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundDespite an unknown cause, Kawasaki disease (KD) is currently the primary leading cause of acquired heart disease in developed countries in children and has been increasing in recent years. Research efforts have explored environmental factors related to KD, but they are still unclear especially in the tropics. We aimed to describe the incidence of KD in children, assess its seasonality, and determine its association with ambient air temperature in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines from January 2009 to December 2019.MethodsMonthly number of KD cases from the Philippine Pediatric Society (PPS) disease registry was collected to determine the incidence of KD. A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was utilized to assess the seasonality of KD and determine its association with ambient air temperature after adjusting for the relevant confounders.ResultsThe majority of KD cases (68.52%) occurred in children less than five years old, with incidence rates ranging from 14.98 to 23.20 cases per 100,000 population, and a male-to-female ratio of 1.43:1. Seasonal variation followed a unimodal shape with a rate ratio of 1.13 from the average, peaking in March and reaching the lowest in September. After adjusting for seasonality and long-term trend, every one-degree Celsius increase in the monthly mean temperature significantly increased the risk of developing KD by 8.28% (95% CI: 2.12%, 14.80%). Season-specific analysis revealed a positive association during the dry season (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.11), whereas no evidence of association was found during the wet season (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.27).ConclusionWe have presented the incidence of KD in the Philippines which is relatively varied from its neighboring countries. The unimodal seasonality of KD and its linear association with temperature, independent of season and secular trend, especially during dry season, may provide insights into its etiology and may support enhanced KD detection efforts in the country. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:04:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ad149c8d4e7d433f823517060e4ba929 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2360 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:04:34Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Pediatrics |
| spelling | doaj.art-ad149c8d4e7d433f823517060e4ba9292024-04-22T04:38:00ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Pediatrics2296-23602024-04-011210.3389/fped.2024.13586381358638Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperatureAden Kay Celis-Seposo0Lina Madaniyazi1Lina Madaniyazi2Xerxes Seposo3Xerxes Seposo4Masahiro Hashizume5Lay Myint Yoshida6Lay Myint Yoshida7Michiko Toizumi8Michiko Toizumi9School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, JapanSchool of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, JapanJapan Environment and Children's Study Programme Office, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JapanDepartment of Hygiene, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, JapanAteneo Center for Research and Innovation, Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health, Ateneo de Manila University, Pasig, PhilippinesDepartment of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanSchool of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, JapanDepartment of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, JapanSchool of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, JapanDepartment of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, JapanBackgroundDespite an unknown cause, Kawasaki disease (KD) is currently the primary leading cause of acquired heart disease in developed countries in children and has been increasing in recent years. Research efforts have explored environmental factors related to KD, but they are still unclear especially in the tropics. We aimed to describe the incidence of KD in children, assess its seasonality, and determine its association with ambient air temperature in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines from January 2009 to December 2019.MethodsMonthly number of KD cases from the Philippine Pediatric Society (PPS) disease registry was collected to determine the incidence of KD. A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was utilized to assess the seasonality of KD and determine its association with ambient air temperature after adjusting for the relevant confounders.ResultsThe majority of KD cases (68.52%) occurred in children less than five years old, with incidence rates ranging from 14.98 to 23.20 cases per 100,000 population, and a male-to-female ratio of 1.43:1. Seasonal variation followed a unimodal shape with a rate ratio of 1.13 from the average, peaking in March and reaching the lowest in September. After adjusting for seasonality and long-term trend, every one-degree Celsius increase in the monthly mean temperature significantly increased the risk of developing KD by 8.28% (95% CI: 2.12%, 14.80%). Season-specific analysis revealed a positive association during the dry season (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.11), whereas no evidence of association was found during the wet season (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.27).ConclusionWe have presented the incidence of KD in the Philippines which is relatively varied from its neighboring countries. The unimodal seasonality of KD and its linear association with temperature, independent of season and secular trend, especially during dry season, may provide insights into its etiology and may support enhanced KD detection efforts in the country.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fped.2024.1358638/fullKawasaki diseaseseasonalitytemperatureenvironmental epidemiologychildren’s environmental healthPhilippines |
| spellingShingle | Aden Kay Celis-Seposo Lina Madaniyazi Lina Madaniyazi Xerxes Seposo Xerxes Seposo Masahiro Hashizume Lay Myint Yoshida Lay Myint Yoshida Michiko Toizumi Michiko Toizumi Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature Frontiers in Pediatrics Kawasaki disease seasonality temperature environmental epidemiology children’s environmental health Philippines |
| title | Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature |
| title_full | Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature |
| title_fullStr | Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature |
| title_full_unstemmed | Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature |
| title_short | Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature |
| title_sort | incidence and seasonality of kawasaki disease in children in the philippines and its association with ambient air temperature |
| topic | Kawasaki disease seasonality temperature environmental epidemiology children’s environmental health Philippines |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fped.2024.1358638/full |
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