Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns.
A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies s...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2014-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3962379?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1811212061194059776 |
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| author | Sonia Kéfi Vishwesha Guttal William A Brock Stephen R Carpenter Aaron M Ellison Valerie N Livina David A Seekell Marten Scheffer Egbert H van Nes Vasilis Dakos |
| author_facet | Sonia Kéfi Vishwesha Guttal William A Brock Stephen R Carpenter Aaron M Ellison Valerie N Livina David A Seekell Marten Scheffer Egbert H van Nes Vasilis Dakos |
| author_sort | Sonia Kéfi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T05:23:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ad46ee65178a4fadaa8b1fedca29ae1a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T05:23:44Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-ad46ee65178a4fadaa8b1fedca29ae1a2022-12-22T03:46:23ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032014-01-0193e9209710.1371/journal.pone.0092097Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns.Sonia KéfiVishwesha GuttalWilliam A BrockStephen R CarpenterAaron M EllisonValerie N LivinaDavid A SeekellMarten SchefferEgbert H van NesVasilis DakosA number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3962379?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Sonia Kéfi Vishwesha Guttal William A Brock Stephen R Carpenter Aaron M Ellison Valerie N Livina David A Seekell Marten Scheffer Egbert H van Nes Vasilis Dakos Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns. PLoS ONE |
| title | Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns. |
| title_full | Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns. |
| title_fullStr | Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns. |
| title_short | Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns. |
| title_sort | early warning signals of ecological transitions methods for spatial patterns |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3962379?pdf=render |
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