Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios
BackgroundIran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.MethodsWe d...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Kerman University of Medical Sciences
2022-03-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Health Policy and Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.ijhpm.com/article_3876_0e03200f4b58d93a7506c4740c6e5a99.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811158803122487296 |
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| author | Hamid Sharifi Yunes Jahani Ali Mirzazadeh Milad Ahmadi Gohari Mehran Nakhaeizadeh Mostafa Shokoohi Sana Eybpoosh Hamid Reza Tohidinik Ehsan Mostafavi Davood Khalili Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari Mohammad Karamouzian Ali Akbar Haghdoost |
| author_facet | Hamid Sharifi Yunes Jahani Ali Mirzazadeh Milad Ahmadi Gohari Mehran Nakhaeizadeh Mostafa Shokoohi Sana Eybpoosh Hamid Reza Tohidinik Ehsan Mostafavi Davood Khalili Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari Mohammad Karamouzian Ali Akbar Haghdoost |
| author_sort | Hamid Sharifi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundIran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.MethodsWe developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). ResultsUnder scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800).ConclusionWith no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T05:29:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ad5a8e1533f1441b8de1e1010ed60dcd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2322-5939 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T05:29:22Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | Kerman University of Medical Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Health Policy and Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-ad5a8e1533f1441b8de1e1010ed60dcd2023-03-07T09:10:09ZengKerman University of Medical SciencesInternational Journal of Health Policy and Management2322-59392022-03-0111333434310.34172/ijhpm.2020.1343876Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation ScenariosHamid Sharifi0Yunes Jahani1Ali Mirzazadeh2Milad Ahmadi Gohari3Mehran Nakhaeizadeh4Mostafa Shokoohi5Sana Eybpoosh6Hamid Reza Tohidinik7Ehsan Mostafavi8Davood Khalili9Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari10Mohammad Karamouzian11Ali Akbar Haghdoost12HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranModeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USAModeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranModeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranHIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Research Centre for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran, IranHIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Research Centre for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran, IranPrevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranPrevention of Cardiovascular Disease Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranHIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranModeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranBackgroundIran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.MethodsWe developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). ResultsUnder scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800).ConclusionWith no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.https://www.ijhpm.com/article_3876_0e03200f4b58d93a7506c4740c6e5a99.pdfcovid-19modelingphysical distancingisolationiran |
| spellingShingle | Hamid Sharifi Yunes Jahani Ali Mirzazadeh Milad Ahmadi Gohari Mehran Nakhaeizadeh Mostafa Shokoohi Sana Eybpoosh Hamid Reza Tohidinik Ehsan Mostafavi Davood Khalili Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari Mohammad Karamouzian Ali Akbar Haghdoost Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios International Journal of Health Policy and Management covid-19 modeling physical distancing isolation iran |
| title | Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios |
| title_full | Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios |
| title_short | Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios |
| title_sort | estimating covid 19 related infections deaths and hospitalizations in iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios |
| topic | covid-19 modeling physical distancing isolation iran |
| url | https://www.ijhpm.com/article_3876_0e03200f4b58d93a7506c4740c6e5a99.pdf |
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