Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions
<p>In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO<span class="inline-formul...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Earth System Science Data |
| Online Access: | https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1639/2022/essd-14-1639-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819062072462278656 |
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| author | Z. Deng P. Ciais Z. A. Tzompa-Sosa M. Saunois C. Qiu C. Tan T. Sun P. Ke Y. Cui K. Tanaka K. Tanaka X. Lin R. L. Thompson H. Tian Y. Yao Y. Huang R. Lauerwald A. K. Jain X. Xu A. Bastos S. Sitch P. I. Palmer P. I. Palmer T. Lauvaux A. d'Aspremont A. d'Aspremont C. Giron A. Benoit B. Poulter J. Chang A. M. R. Petrescu S. J. Davis Z. Liu G. Grassi C. Albergel F. N. Tubiello L. Perugini W. Peters W. Peters F. Chevallier |
| author_facet | Z. Deng P. Ciais Z. A. Tzompa-Sosa M. Saunois C. Qiu C. Tan T. Sun P. Ke Y. Cui K. Tanaka K. Tanaka X. Lin R. L. Thompson H. Tian Y. Yao Y. Huang R. Lauerwald A. K. Jain X. Xu A. Bastos S. Sitch P. I. Palmer P. I. Palmer T. Lauvaux A. d'Aspremont A. d'Aspremont C. Giron A. Benoit B. Poulter J. Chang A. M. R. Petrescu S. J. Davis Z. Liu G. Grassi C. Albergel F. N. Tubiello L. Perugini W. Peters W. Peters F. Chevallier |
| author_sort | Z. Deng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement
on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process
the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their
net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>) flux suitable for
evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by
countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>)
emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as
anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>O) emissions. To compare inversion
results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database
of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I
countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by
non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update
reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with
inventories is applied to selected large countries covering <span class="inline-formula">∼90</span> % of the global land carbon uptake for CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> and top emitters of
CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> and N<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global
inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse
gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> fluxes caused by
lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood
products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not
accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across
the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger
terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups
of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European
Union. For CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>, we find good consistency between the inversions
assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using
satellite CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose
higher CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emission estimates than reported by NGHGIs. In particular,
oil- and gas-extracting countries in central Asia and the Persian Gulf region
tend to systematically report lower emissions compared to those estimated by
inversions. For N<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>O, inversions tend to produce higher anthropogenic
emissions than inventories for tropical countries, even when attempting to
consider only managed land emissions. In the inventories of many non-Annex I
countries, this can be tentatively attributed to a lack of reporting
indirect N<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>O emissions from atmospheric deposition and from leaching to
rivers, to the existence of natural sources intertwined with managed
lands, or to an underestimation of N<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>O emission factors for direct
agricultural soil emissions. Inversions provide insights into seasonal and
interannual greenhouse gas fluxes anomalies, e.g., during extreme events
such as drought or abnormal fire episodes, whereas inventory methods are
established to estimate trends and multi-annual changes. As a much denser
sampling of atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> and CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> concentrations by different
satellites coordinated into a global constellation is expected in the coming
years, the methodology proposed here to compare inversion results with
inventory reports (e.g., NGHGIs) could be applied regularly for monitoring
the effectiveness of mitigation policy and progress by countries to meet the
objective of their pledges. The dataset constructed by this study is
publicly available at <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5089799">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5089799</a> (Deng et al., 2021).</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T14:52:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ad9db9d5dd5b43528ff88d4b752fe4aa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1866-3508 1866-3516 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T14:52:58Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Science Data |
| spelling | doaj.art-ad9db9d5dd5b43528ff88d4b752fe4aa2022-12-21T18:59:50ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Science Data1866-35081866-35162022-04-01141639167510.5194/essd-14-1639-2022Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversionsZ. Deng0P. Ciais1Z. A. Tzompa-Sosa2M. Saunois3C. Qiu4C. Tan5T. Sun6P. Ke7Y. Cui8K. Tanaka9K. Tanaka10X. Lin11R. L. Thompson12H. Tian13Y. Yao14Y. Huang15R. Lauerwald16A. K. Jain17X. Xu18A. Bastos19S. Sitch20P. I. Palmer21P. I. Palmer22T. Lauvaux23A. d'Aspremont24A. d'Aspremont25C. Giron26A. Benoit27B. Poulter28J. Chang29A. M. R. Petrescu30S. J. Davis31Z. Liu32G. Grassi33C. Albergel34F. N. Tubiello35L. Perugini36W. Peters37W. Peters38F. Chevallier39Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaJiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, ChinaLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceEarth System Risk Analysis Section, Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, JapanLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceNorwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Kjeller, NorwayInternational Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USAInternational Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USACSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, AustraliaUniversité Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR ECOSYS, 78850 Thiverval-Grignon, FranceDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USADepartment of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans Knöll Str. 10, Jena, GermanyCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UKNational Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKSchool of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceKayrros, 33 rue Lafayette, 75009 Paris, FranceCNRS & DI, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, FranceKayrros, 33 rue Lafayette, 75009 Paris, FranceKayrros, 33 rue Lafayette, 75009 Paris, FranceNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USACollege of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, 310058 Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the NetherlandsDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California at Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USADepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaJoint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra (VA), ItalyEuropean Space Agency Climate Office, ECSAT, Harwell Campus, Didcot, Oxfordshire, UKStatistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Via Terme di Caracalla, Rome, ItalyFoundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Division on Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Viale Trieste, Viterbo, ItalyMeteorology and Air Quality Department, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the NetherlandsEnergy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the NetherlandsLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France<p>In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>O) emissions. To compare inversion results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering <span class="inline-formula">∼90</span> % of the global land carbon uptake for CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> and top emitters of CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> and N<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>, we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using satellite CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emission estimates than reported by NGHGIs. In particular, oil- and gas-extracting countries in central Asia and the Persian Gulf region tend to systematically report lower emissions compared to those estimated by inversions. For N<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>O, inversions tend to produce higher anthropogenic emissions than inventories for tropical countries, even when attempting to consider only managed land emissions. In the inventories of many non-Annex I countries, this can be tentatively attributed to a lack of reporting indirect N<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>O emissions from atmospheric deposition and from leaching to rivers, to the existence of natural sources intertwined with managed lands, or to an underestimation of N<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>O emission factors for direct agricultural soil emissions. Inversions provide insights into seasonal and interannual greenhouse gas fluxes anomalies, e.g., during extreme events such as drought or abnormal fire episodes, whereas inventory methods are established to estimate trends and multi-annual changes. As a much denser sampling of atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> and CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> concentrations by different satellites coordinated into a global constellation is expected in the coming years, the methodology proposed here to compare inversion results with inventory reports (e.g., NGHGIs) could be applied regularly for monitoring the effectiveness of mitigation policy and progress by countries to meet the objective of their pledges. The dataset constructed by this study is publicly available at <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5089799">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5089799</a> (Deng et al., 2021).</p>https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1639/2022/essd-14-1639-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Z. Deng P. Ciais Z. A. Tzompa-Sosa M. Saunois C. Qiu C. Tan T. Sun P. Ke Y. Cui K. Tanaka K. Tanaka X. Lin R. L. Thompson H. Tian Y. Yao Y. Huang R. Lauerwald A. K. Jain X. Xu A. Bastos S. Sitch P. I. Palmer P. I. Palmer T. Lauvaux A. d'Aspremont A. d'Aspremont C. Giron A. Benoit B. Poulter J. Chang A. M. R. Petrescu S. J. Davis Z. Liu G. Grassi C. Albergel F. N. Tubiello L. Perugini W. Peters W. Peters F. Chevallier Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions Earth System Science Data |
| title | Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions |
| title_full | Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions |
| title_fullStr | Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions |
| title_short | Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions |
| title_sort | comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in unfccc inventories against atmospheric inversions |
| url | https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1639/2022/essd-14-1639-2022.pdf |
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