Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms.
A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles depos...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2012-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3279517?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1811266240745832448 |
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| author | Amos Ssematimba Thomas J Hagenaars Mart C M de Jong |
| author_facet | Amos Ssematimba Thomas J Hagenaars Mart C M de Jong |
| author_sort | Amos Ssematimba |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T20:38:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-adc83a8bacc249f190597f1d36bce0c4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T20:38:32Z |
| publishDate | 2012-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-adc83a8bacc249f190597f1d36bce0c42022-12-22T03:17:30ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032012-01-0172e3111410.1371/journal.pone.0031114Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms.Amos SsematimbaThomas J HagenaarsMart C M de JongA quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3279517?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Amos Ssematimba Thomas J Hagenaars Mart C M de Jong Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms. PLoS ONE |
| title | Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms. |
| title_full | Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms. |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms. |
| title_short | Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms. |
| title_sort | modelling the wind borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3279517?pdf=render |
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