Prediction of potential suitable habitats in the 21st century and GAP analysis of priority conservation areas of Chionanthus retusus based on the MaxEnt and Marxan models
Chionanthus retusus (C. retusus) has a high economic and medicinal value, but in recent years it has been included in the list of China's major protected plants and China's Red List of Biodiversity due to the serious destruction of its wild germplasm resources. Based on 131 sample points o...
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| Format: | Article |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Plant Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1304121/full |
| _version_ | 1797291721921396736 |
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| author | Yongji Wang Kefan Wu Ruxia Zhao Liyuan Xie Yifan Li Guanghua Zhao Guanghua Zhao Fen-Guo Zhang |
| author_facet | Yongji Wang Kefan Wu Ruxia Zhao Liyuan Xie Yifan Li Guanghua Zhao Guanghua Zhao Fen-Guo Zhang |
| author_sort | Yongji Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Chionanthus retusus (C. retusus) has a high economic and medicinal value, but in recent years it has been included in the list of China's major protected plants and China's Red List of Biodiversity due to the serious destruction of its wild germplasm resources. Based on 131 sample points of C. retusus, this study simulated potential habitats and spatial changes of C. retusus in the 21st century using the Maxent model combined with the geographic information system ArcGIS, predicted prioritized protected areas by the Marxan model, and assessed current conservation status through GAP analysis. The results showed that (1) when the regularization multiplier was 1.5 and the feature combinations were linear, quadratic, and fragmented, the area under the curve of the subjects in the training and test sets were both above 0.9, the true skill statistic value was 0.80, and the maximum Kappa value was 0.62, meaning that the model had high accuracy; (2) Temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, min temperature for coldest month, and precipitation of wettest month had relatively strong influences on species' ranges. (3) The moderately and optimally suitable habitats of C. retusus were primly located in the areas of southwestern Shanxi, central Hebei, western Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi, Anhui and Hubei; (4) Under different future climate scenarios, the area of each class of suitable habitat will increase for varied amounts compared to the current period, with a general trend of expansion to the south; (5) The C. retusus priority protected areas were mainly located in most of Shandong, southern Liaoning, southwestern Shanxi, western Henan, and central Hebei, and its conservation vacancy area was relatively large compared to its protected area. These results will provide scientific strategies for implementing long-term conservation of C. retusus in China and similar regions under warming conditions in the 21st century. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T19:40:53Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1664-462X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T19:40:53Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Plant Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-adc8d5fdee41424a983001d36fb263f92024-02-29T05:33:07ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Plant Science1664-462X2024-02-011510.3389/fpls.2024.13041211304121Prediction of potential suitable habitats in the 21st century and GAP analysis of priority conservation areas of Chionanthus retusus based on the MaxEnt and Marxan modelsYongji Wang0Kefan Wu1Ruxia Zhao2Liyuan Xie3Yifan Li4Guanghua Zhao5Guanghua Zhao6Fen-Guo Zhang7School of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, ChinaSchool of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, ChinaSchool of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, ChinaSchool of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, ChinaSchool of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, ChinaSchool of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, ChinaAdministrative Office, Shanwei Middle School, Shanwei, ChinaSchool of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, ChinaChionanthus retusus (C. retusus) has a high economic and medicinal value, but in recent years it has been included in the list of China's major protected plants and China's Red List of Biodiversity due to the serious destruction of its wild germplasm resources. Based on 131 sample points of C. retusus, this study simulated potential habitats and spatial changes of C. retusus in the 21st century using the Maxent model combined with the geographic information system ArcGIS, predicted prioritized protected areas by the Marxan model, and assessed current conservation status through GAP analysis. The results showed that (1) when the regularization multiplier was 1.5 and the feature combinations were linear, quadratic, and fragmented, the area under the curve of the subjects in the training and test sets were both above 0.9, the true skill statistic value was 0.80, and the maximum Kappa value was 0.62, meaning that the model had high accuracy; (2) Temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, min temperature for coldest month, and precipitation of wettest month had relatively strong influences on species' ranges. (3) The moderately and optimally suitable habitats of C. retusus were primly located in the areas of southwestern Shanxi, central Hebei, western Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi, Anhui and Hubei; (4) Under different future climate scenarios, the area of each class of suitable habitat will increase for varied amounts compared to the current period, with a general trend of expansion to the south; (5) The C. retusus priority protected areas were mainly located in most of Shandong, southern Liaoning, southwestern Shanxi, western Henan, and central Hebei, and its conservation vacancy area was relatively large compared to its protected area. These results will provide scientific strategies for implementing long-term conservation of C. retusus in China and similar regions under warming conditions in the 21st century.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1304121/fullChionanthus retususclimate changeMaxent modelENMevalMarxan modelhabitat shift |
| spellingShingle | Yongji Wang Kefan Wu Ruxia Zhao Liyuan Xie Yifan Li Guanghua Zhao Guanghua Zhao Fen-Guo Zhang Prediction of potential suitable habitats in the 21st century and GAP analysis of priority conservation areas of Chionanthus retusus based on the MaxEnt and Marxan models Frontiers in Plant Science Chionanthus retusus climate change Maxent model ENMeval Marxan model habitat shift |
| title | Prediction of potential suitable habitats in the 21st century and GAP analysis of priority conservation areas of Chionanthus retusus based on the MaxEnt and Marxan models |
| title_full | Prediction of potential suitable habitats in the 21st century and GAP analysis of priority conservation areas of Chionanthus retusus based on the MaxEnt and Marxan models |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of potential suitable habitats in the 21st century and GAP analysis of priority conservation areas of Chionanthus retusus based on the MaxEnt and Marxan models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of potential suitable habitats in the 21st century and GAP analysis of priority conservation areas of Chionanthus retusus based on the MaxEnt and Marxan models |
| title_short | Prediction of potential suitable habitats in the 21st century and GAP analysis of priority conservation areas of Chionanthus retusus based on the MaxEnt and Marxan models |
| title_sort | prediction of potential suitable habitats in the 21st century and gap analysis of priority conservation areas of chionanthus retusus based on the maxent and marxan models |
| topic | Chionanthus retusus climate change Maxent model ENMeval Marxan model habitat shift |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1304121/full |
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