Modelling Dominant Tree Heights of <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L. Using Function-on-Scalar Regression Based on Forest Inventory Data
European beech (<i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L.) is an important tree species throughout Europe but shifts in its suitable habitats are expected in the future due to climate change. Finding provenances that are still economically viable and ecologically resilient is an ongoing field of researc...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-02-01
|
| Series: | Forests |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/14/2/304 |
| _version_ | 1797620972291883008 |
|---|---|
| author | Markus Engel Tobias Mette Wolfgang Falk Werner Poschenrieder Jonas Fridman Mitja Skudnik |
| author_facet | Markus Engel Tobias Mette Wolfgang Falk Werner Poschenrieder Jonas Fridman Mitja Skudnik |
| author_sort | Markus Engel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | European beech (<i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L.) is an important tree species throughout Europe but shifts in its suitable habitats are expected in the future due to climate change. Finding provenances that are still economically viable and ecologically resilient is an ongoing field of research. We modelled the dominant tree heights of European beech as a trait reflecting growth performance dependent on provenance, climate and soil conditions. We derived dominant tree heights from national forest inventory (NFI) data from six European countries spanning over large ecological gradients. We performed function-on-scalar regression using hierarchical generalized additive models (HGAM) to model both the global effects shared among all provenances and the effects specific to a particular provenance. By comparing predictions for a reference period of 1981–2010 and 2071–2100 in a RCP 8.5 scenario, we showed that changes in growth performance can be expected in the future. Dominant tree heights decreased in Southern and Central Europe but increased in Northern Europe by more than 10 m. Changes in growth performance were always accompanied by a change in beech provenances, assuming assisted migration without dispersal limitations. Our results support the concept of assisted migration for the building of resilient future forests and emphasize the use of genetic data for future growth predictions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:49:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-adeb52b6387e434a8cacaa4d45796cfa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:49:08Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-adeb52b6387e434a8cacaa4d45796cfa2023-11-16T20:34:06ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072023-02-0114230410.3390/f14020304Modelling Dominant Tree Heights of <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L. Using Function-on-Scalar Regression Based on Forest Inventory DataMarkus Engel0Tobias Mette1Wolfgang Falk2Werner Poschenrieder3Jonas Fridman4Mitja Skudnik5Department Soil and Climate, Bavarian State Institute of Forestry, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 1, 85354 Freising, GermanyDepartment Soil and Climate, Bavarian State Institute of Forestry, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 1, 85354 Freising, GermanyDepartment Soil and Climate, Bavarian State Institute of Forestry, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 1, 85354 Freising, GermanyDepartment Soil and Climate, Bavarian State Institute of Forestry, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 1, 85354 Freising, GermanyDepartment of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-90183 Umea, SwedenDepartment for Forest and Landscape Planning and Monitoring, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Večna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, SloveniaEuropean beech (<i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L.) is an important tree species throughout Europe but shifts in its suitable habitats are expected in the future due to climate change. Finding provenances that are still economically viable and ecologically resilient is an ongoing field of research. We modelled the dominant tree heights of European beech as a trait reflecting growth performance dependent on provenance, climate and soil conditions. We derived dominant tree heights from national forest inventory (NFI) data from six European countries spanning over large ecological gradients. We performed function-on-scalar regression using hierarchical generalized additive models (HGAM) to model both the global effects shared among all provenances and the effects specific to a particular provenance. By comparing predictions for a reference period of 1981–2010 and 2071–2100 in a RCP 8.5 scenario, we showed that changes in growth performance can be expected in the future. Dominant tree heights decreased in Southern and Central Europe but increased in Northern Europe by more than 10 m. Changes in growth performance were always accompanied by a change in beech provenances, assuming assisted migration without dispersal limitations. Our results support the concept of assisted migration for the building of resilient future forests and emphasize the use of genetic data for future growth predictions.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/14/2/304hierarchical GAMsfunctional regression<i>Fagus sylvatica</i>provenanceassisted migration |
| spellingShingle | Markus Engel Tobias Mette Wolfgang Falk Werner Poschenrieder Jonas Fridman Mitja Skudnik Modelling Dominant Tree Heights of <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L. Using Function-on-Scalar Regression Based on Forest Inventory Data Forests hierarchical GAMs functional regression <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> provenance assisted migration |
| title | Modelling Dominant Tree Heights of <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L. Using Function-on-Scalar Regression Based on Forest Inventory Data |
| title_full | Modelling Dominant Tree Heights of <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L. Using Function-on-Scalar Regression Based on Forest Inventory Data |
| title_fullStr | Modelling Dominant Tree Heights of <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L. Using Function-on-Scalar Regression Based on Forest Inventory Data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling Dominant Tree Heights of <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L. Using Function-on-Scalar Regression Based on Forest Inventory Data |
| title_short | Modelling Dominant Tree Heights of <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L. Using Function-on-Scalar Regression Based on Forest Inventory Data |
| title_sort | modelling dominant tree heights of i fagus sylvatica i l using function on scalar regression based on forest inventory data |
| topic | hierarchical GAMs functional regression <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> provenance assisted migration |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/14/2/304 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT markusengel modellingdominanttreeheightsofifagussylvaticailusingfunctiononscalarregressionbasedonforestinventorydata AT tobiasmette modellingdominanttreeheightsofifagussylvaticailusingfunctiononscalarregressionbasedonforestinventorydata AT wolfgangfalk modellingdominanttreeheightsofifagussylvaticailusingfunctiononscalarregressionbasedonforestinventorydata AT wernerposchenrieder modellingdominanttreeheightsofifagussylvaticailusingfunctiononscalarregressionbasedonforestinventorydata AT jonasfridman modellingdominanttreeheightsofifagussylvaticailusingfunctiononscalarregressionbasedonforestinventorydata AT mitjaskudnik modellingdominanttreeheightsofifagussylvaticailusingfunctiononscalarregressionbasedonforestinventorydata |