Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones
For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in spite of this uncertainty in the atm...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59 |
| _version_ | 1797748081863688192 |
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| author | Matt Hawcroft Ella Walsh Kevin Hodges Giuseppe Zappa |
| author_facet | Matt Hawcroft Ella Walsh Kevin Hodges Giuseppe Zappa |
| author_sort | Matt Hawcroft |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in spite of this uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to warming, by analysing the behaviour of the storms (or extratropical cyclones) themselves, projections of change in the number of the most intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are substantial and consistent across models. In particular, we show large increases in the frequency of extreme extratropical cyclones (those above the present day 99th percentile of precipitation intensity) by the end of the century. In both Europe and North America, these intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are projected to more than triple in number by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are mitigated. Such changes in extratropical cyclone behaviour may have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are responsible for many large-scale flooding events, and associated severe economic losses, in these regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:00:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ae3b5f1d7b3746aea2bf9e3c4732161d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:00:51Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ae3b5f1d7b3746aea2bf9e3c4732161d2023-08-09T14:40:02ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-01131212400610.1088/1748-9326/aaed59Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclonesMatt Hawcroft0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0311-974XElla Walsh1Kevin Hodges2Giuseppe Zappa3College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter , Exeter, United KingdomCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter , Exeter, United Kingdom; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford , Oxford, United KingdomDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomFor the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in spite of this uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to warming, by analysing the behaviour of the storms (or extratropical cyclones) themselves, projections of change in the number of the most intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are substantial and consistent across models. In particular, we show large increases in the frequency of extreme extratropical cyclones (those above the present day 99th percentile of precipitation intensity) by the end of the century. In both Europe and North America, these intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are projected to more than triple in number by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are mitigated. Such changes in extratropical cyclone behaviour may have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are responsible for many large-scale flooding events, and associated severe economic losses, in these regions.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59climateclimate changeprecipitationclimate modelsCMIP5climate impacts |
| spellingShingle | Matt Hawcroft Ella Walsh Kevin Hodges Giuseppe Zappa Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones Environmental Research Letters climate climate change precipitation climate models CMIP5 climate impacts |
| title | Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones |
| title_full | Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones |
| title_fullStr | Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones |
| title_full_unstemmed | Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones |
| title_short | Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones |
| title_sort | significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in europe and north america from extratropical cyclones |
| topic | climate climate change precipitation climate models CMIP5 climate impacts |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59 |
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