Development and validation of novel immune-inflammation-based clinical predictive nomograms in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer
PurposeTo explore the predictive value of multiple immune-inflammatory biomarkers including serum VEGFA and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer (AGC) and establish nomograms for predicting the first-line chemotherapeutic efficacy, progression-free surviv...
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| Format: | Article |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1185240/full |
| _version_ | 1797691095827611648 |
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| author | Yan Yang Yu Shao Junjun Wang Qianqian Cheng Hanqi Yang Yulong Li Jing Liu Yangyang Zhou Zhengguang Zhou Mingxi Wang Baoan Ji Jinghao Yao Jinghao Yao |
| author_facet | Yan Yang Yu Shao Junjun Wang Qianqian Cheng Hanqi Yang Yulong Li Jing Liu Yangyang Zhou Zhengguang Zhou Mingxi Wang Baoan Ji Jinghao Yao Jinghao Yao |
| author_sort | Yan Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | PurposeTo explore the predictive value of multiple immune-inflammatory biomarkers including serum VEGFA and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer (AGC) and establish nomograms for predicting the first-line chemotherapeutic efficacy, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of patients with this fatal disease.MethodsFrom November 2017 to April 2022, 102 and 34 patients with a diagnosis of HER2-negative AGC at the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College were enrolled as development and validation cohorts, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the clinical value of the candidate indicators. The variables were screened using LASSO regression analysis. Predictive models were developed using significant predictors and are displayed as nomograms.ResultsBaseline VEGFA expression was significantly higher in HER2-negative AGC patients than in nonneoplastic patients and was associated with malignant serous effusion and therapeutic efficacy (all p<0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that VEGFA was an independent predictor for first-line therapeutic efficacy and PFS (both p<0.01) and SII was an independent predictor for first-line PFS and OS (both p<0.05) in HER2-negative AGC patients. The therapeutic efficacy model had an R2 of 0.37, a Brier score of 0.15, and a Harrell’s C-index of 0.82 in the development cohort and 0.90 in the validation cohort. The decision curve analysis indicated that the model added more net benefits than VEGFA assessment alone. The PFS/OS models had Harrell’s C-indexes of 0.71/0.69 in the development cohort and 0.71/0.62 in the validation cohort.ConclusionThe established nomograms integrating serum VEGFA/SII and commonly available baseline characteristics provided satisfactory performance in predicting the therapeutic efficacy and prognosis of HER2-negative AGC patients. |
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ae5ad60f1210420795393ddcbdf06707 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T02:09:27Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj.art-ae5ad60f1210420795393ddcbdf067072023-09-06T17:11:33ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2023-09-011310.3389/fonc.2023.11852401185240Development and validation of novel immune-inflammation-based clinical predictive nomograms in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancerYan Yang0Yu Shao1Junjun Wang2Qianqian Cheng3Hanqi Yang4Yulong Li5Jing Liu6Yangyang Zhou7Zhengguang Zhou8Mingxi Wang9Baoan Ji10Jinghao Yao11Jinghao Yao12Department of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Radiation Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Clinical Laboratory, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Surgical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Cancer Biology, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, United StatesDepartment of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, ChinaPurposeTo explore the predictive value of multiple immune-inflammatory biomarkers including serum VEGFA and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer (AGC) and establish nomograms for predicting the first-line chemotherapeutic efficacy, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of patients with this fatal disease.MethodsFrom November 2017 to April 2022, 102 and 34 patients with a diagnosis of HER2-negative AGC at the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College were enrolled as development and validation cohorts, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the clinical value of the candidate indicators. The variables were screened using LASSO regression analysis. Predictive models were developed using significant predictors and are displayed as nomograms.ResultsBaseline VEGFA expression was significantly higher in HER2-negative AGC patients than in nonneoplastic patients and was associated with malignant serous effusion and therapeutic efficacy (all p<0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that VEGFA was an independent predictor for first-line therapeutic efficacy and PFS (both p<0.01) and SII was an independent predictor for first-line PFS and OS (both p<0.05) in HER2-negative AGC patients. The therapeutic efficacy model had an R2 of 0.37, a Brier score of 0.15, and a Harrell’s C-index of 0.82 in the development cohort and 0.90 in the validation cohort. The decision curve analysis indicated that the model added more net benefits than VEGFA assessment alone. The PFS/OS models had Harrell’s C-indexes of 0.71/0.69 in the development cohort and 0.71/0.62 in the validation cohort.ConclusionThe established nomograms integrating serum VEGFA/SII and commonly available baseline characteristics provided satisfactory performance in predicting the therapeutic efficacy and prognosis of HER2-negative AGC patients.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1185240/fullnomogrampredictive modelVEGFAHER2-negativeadvanced gastric cancer |
| spellingShingle | Yan Yang Yu Shao Junjun Wang Qianqian Cheng Hanqi Yang Yulong Li Jing Liu Yangyang Zhou Zhengguang Zhou Mingxi Wang Baoan Ji Jinghao Yao Jinghao Yao Development and validation of novel immune-inflammation-based clinical predictive nomograms in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer Frontiers in Oncology nomogram predictive model VEGFA HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer |
| title | Development and validation of novel immune-inflammation-based clinical predictive nomograms in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer |
| title_full | Development and validation of novel immune-inflammation-based clinical predictive nomograms in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of novel immune-inflammation-based clinical predictive nomograms in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of novel immune-inflammation-based clinical predictive nomograms in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer |
| title_short | Development and validation of novel immune-inflammation-based clinical predictive nomograms in HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer |
| title_sort | development and validation of novel immune inflammation based clinical predictive nomograms in her2 negative advanced gastric cancer |
| topic | nomogram predictive model VEGFA HER2-negative advanced gastric cancer |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1185240/full |
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