Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s
Abstract Diagnosing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability within operational forecast models is hindered by computational expense and the need for initialization with three-dimensional fields generated by global data assimilation. We instead examine multi-year ENSO predictability since...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-07-01
|
| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00417-z |
| _version_ | 1797778996282261504 |
|---|---|
| author | Jiale Lou Matthew Newman Andrew Hoell |
| author_facet | Jiale Lou Matthew Newman Andrew Hoell |
| author_sort | Jiale Lou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Diagnosing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability within operational forecast models is hindered by computational expense and the need for initialization with three-dimensional fields generated by global data assimilation. We instead examine multi-year ENSO predictability since the late 1800s using the model-analog technique, which has neither limitation. We first draw global coupled model states from pre-industrial control simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, that are chosen to initially match observed monthly sea surface temperature and height anomalies in the Tropics. Their subsequent 36-month model evolution are the hindcasts, whose 20th century ENSO skill is comparable to twice-yearly hindcasts generated by a state-of-the-art European operational forecasting system. Despite the so-called spring predictability barrier, present throughout the record, there is substantial second-year ENSO skill, especially after 1960. Overall, ENSO exhibited notably high values of both amplitude and skill towards the end of the 19th century, and again in recent decades. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:24:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ae8b93f5e7ed4f8ea222a805f0d33b05 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:24:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-ae8b93f5e7ed4f8ea222a805f0d33b052023-07-16T11:13:24ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222023-07-016111410.1038/s41612-023-00417-zMulti-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800sJiale Lou0Matthew Newman1Andrew Hoell2Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado BoulderNOAA Physical Sciences LaboratoryNOAA Physical Sciences LaboratoryAbstract Diagnosing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability within operational forecast models is hindered by computational expense and the need for initialization with three-dimensional fields generated by global data assimilation. We instead examine multi-year ENSO predictability since the late 1800s using the model-analog technique, which has neither limitation. We first draw global coupled model states from pre-industrial control simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, that are chosen to initially match observed monthly sea surface temperature and height anomalies in the Tropics. Their subsequent 36-month model evolution are the hindcasts, whose 20th century ENSO skill is comparable to twice-yearly hindcasts generated by a state-of-the-art European operational forecasting system. Despite the so-called spring predictability barrier, present throughout the record, there is substantial second-year ENSO skill, especially after 1960. Overall, ENSO exhibited notably high values of both amplitude and skill towards the end of the 19th century, and again in recent decades.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00417-z |
| spellingShingle | Jiale Lou Matthew Newman Andrew Hoell Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s |
| title_full | Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s |
| title_fullStr | Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s |
| title_short | Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s |
| title_sort | multi decadal variation of enso forecast skill since the late 1800s |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00417-z |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jialelou multidecadalvariationofensoforecastskillsincethelate1800s AT matthewnewman multidecadalvariationofensoforecastskillsincethelate1800s AT andrewhoell multidecadalvariationofensoforecastskillsincethelate1800s |