Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollution
Air pollution is the greatest environmental risk to public health. Future air pollution concentrations are primarily determined by precursor emissions, which are driven by environmental policies relating to climate and air pollution. Detailed health impact assessments (HIA) are necessary to provide...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-04-01
|
| Series: | Environment International |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412023001356 |
| _version_ | 1797840030722424832 |
|---|---|
| author | Helen L. Macintyre Christina Mitsakou Massimo Vieno Mathew R. Heal Clare Heaviside Karen S. Exley |
| author_facet | Helen L. Macintyre Christina Mitsakou Massimo Vieno Mathew R. Heal Clare Heaviside Karen S. Exley |
| author_sort | Helen L. Macintyre |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Air pollution is the greatest environmental risk to public health. Future air pollution concentrations are primarily determined by precursor emissions, which are driven by environmental policies relating to climate and air pollution. Detailed health impact assessments (HIA) are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of the impacts of future air pollution to support decision-makers developing environmental policy and targets. In this study we use high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry modelling to simulate future air pollution concentrations across the UK for 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on current UK and European policy projections. We combine UK regional population-weighted concentrations with the latest epidemiological relationships to quantify mortality associated with changes in PM2.5 and NO2 air pollution. Our HIA suggests that by 2050, population-weighted exposure to PM2.5 will reduce by 28% to 36%, and for NO2 by 35% to 49%, depending on region. The HIA shows that for present day (2018), annual mortality attributable to the effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 is in the range 26,287 – 42,442, and that mortality burdens in future will be substantially reduced, being lower by 31%, 35%, and 37% in 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (relative to 2018) assuming no population changes. Including population projections (increases in all regions for 30+ years age group) slightly offsets these health benefits, resulting in reductions of 25%, 27%, and 26% in mortality burdens for 2030, 2040, 2050 respectively. Significant reductions in future mortality burdens are estimated and, importantly for public health, the majority of benefits are achieved early on in the future timeline simulated, though further efforts are likely needed to reduce impacts of air pollution to health. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:07:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ae8f5072e9d34930843428bbdd03116c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0160-4120 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:07:49Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environment International |
| spelling | doaj.art-ae8f5072e9d34930843428bbdd03116c2023-04-25T04:07:35ZengElsevierEnvironment International0160-41202023-04-01174107862Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollutionHelen L. Macintyre0Christina Mitsakou1Massimo Vieno2Mathew R. Heal3Clare Heaviside4Karen S. Exley5UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15 2TT, UK; Corresponding author.UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UKSchool of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh, Joseph Black Building, David Brewster Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FJ, UKInstitute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UKUK Health Security Agency, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UKAir pollution is the greatest environmental risk to public health. Future air pollution concentrations are primarily determined by precursor emissions, which are driven by environmental policies relating to climate and air pollution. Detailed health impact assessments (HIA) are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of the impacts of future air pollution to support decision-makers developing environmental policy and targets. In this study we use high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry modelling to simulate future air pollution concentrations across the UK for 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on current UK and European policy projections. We combine UK regional population-weighted concentrations with the latest epidemiological relationships to quantify mortality associated with changes in PM2.5 and NO2 air pollution. Our HIA suggests that by 2050, population-weighted exposure to PM2.5 will reduce by 28% to 36%, and for NO2 by 35% to 49%, depending on region. The HIA shows that for present day (2018), annual mortality attributable to the effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 is in the range 26,287 – 42,442, and that mortality burdens in future will be substantially reduced, being lower by 31%, 35%, and 37% in 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (relative to 2018) assuming no population changes. Including population projections (increases in all regions for 30+ years age group) slightly offsets these health benefits, resulting in reductions of 25%, 27%, and 26% in mortality burdens for 2030, 2040, 2050 respectively. Significant reductions in future mortality burdens are estimated and, importantly for public health, the majority of benefits are achieved early on in the future timeline simulated, though further efforts are likely needed to reduce impacts of air pollution to health.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412023001356Air qualityHealth impact assessmentEmissionsMortalityPM2.5NO2 |
| spellingShingle | Helen L. Macintyre Christina Mitsakou Massimo Vieno Mathew R. Heal Clare Heaviside Karen S. Exley Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollution Environment International Air quality Health impact assessment Emissions Mortality PM2.5 NO2 |
| title | Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollution |
| title_full | Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollution |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollution |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollution |
| title_short | Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollution |
| title_sort | impacts of emissions policies on future uk mortality burdens associated with air pollution |
| topic | Air quality Health impact assessment Emissions Mortality PM2.5 NO2 |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412023001356 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT helenlmacintyre impactsofemissionspoliciesonfutureukmortalityburdensassociatedwithairpollution AT christinamitsakou impactsofemissionspoliciesonfutureukmortalityburdensassociatedwithairpollution AT massimovieno impactsofemissionspoliciesonfutureukmortalityburdensassociatedwithairpollution AT mathewrheal impactsofemissionspoliciesonfutureukmortalityburdensassociatedwithairpollution AT clareheaviside impactsofemissionspoliciesonfutureukmortalityburdensassociatedwithairpollution AT karensexley impactsofemissionspoliciesonfutureukmortalityburdensassociatedwithairpollution |