The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany
Abstract Background Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-11-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17152-y |
| _version_ | 1827632862249091072 |
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| author | Luz María Sánchez-Romero Alex C. Liber Yameng Li Zhe Yuan Jamie Tam Nargiz Travis Jihyoun Jeon Mona Issabakhsh Rafael Meza David T. Levy |
| author_facet | Luz María Sánchez-Romero Alex C. Liber Yameng Li Zhe Yuan Jamie Tam Nargiz Travis Jihyoun Jeon Mona Issabakhsh Rafael Meza David T. Levy |
| author_sort | Luz María Sánchez-Romero |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs. Methods SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the absence of NVPs using population projections, deaths rates, life expectancy, and smoking prevalence. The NVP scenario models vaping prevalence and its impact on smoking once NVPs became popular. NVP use impact is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the No-NVP and NVP scenarios. We illustrate SAVM’s adaptation to the German adult ages 18+ population, the Germany-SAVM by adjusting the model using population, mortality, smoking and NVP use data. Results Assuming that the excess NVP mortality risk is 5% that of smoking, Germany-SAVM projected 4.7 million LYLs and almost 300,000 SVADs averted associated with NVP use from 2012 to 2060. Increasing the excess NVP mortality risk to 40% with other rates constant resulted in averted 2.8 million LYLs and 200,000 SVADs during the same period. Conclusions SAVM enables non-modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to analyze the potential population health effects of NVP use and public health interventions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:51:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ae8f6134d4004dd78b787e0359017b6f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:51:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-ae8f6134d4004dd78b787e0359017b6f2023-11-26T14:28:07ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582023-11-0123111510.1186/s12889-023-17152-yThe smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to GermanyLuz María Sánchez-Romero0Alex C. Liber1Yameng Li2Zhe Yuan3Jamie Tam4Nargiz Travis5Jihyoun Jeon6Mona Issabakhsh7Rafael Meza8David T. Levy9Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown UniversityLombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown UniversityLombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown UniversityLombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown UniversitySchool of Public Health, Yale UniversityLombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology, University of MichiganLombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology, University of MichiganLombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown UniversityAbstract Background Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs. Methods SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the absence of NVPs using population projections, deaths rates, life expectancy, and smoking prevalence. The NVP scenario models vaping prevalence and its impact on smoking once NVPs became popular. NVP use impact is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the No-NVP and NVP scenarios. We illustrate SAVM’s adaptation to the German adult ages 18+ population, the Germany-SAVM by adjusting the model using population, mortality, smoking and NVP use data. Results Assuming that the excess NVP mortality risk is 5% that of smoking, Germany-SAVM projected 4.7 million LYLs and almost 300,000 SVADs averted associated with NVP use from 2012 to 2060. Increasing the excess NVP mortality risk to 40% with other rates constant resulted in averted 2.8 million LYLs and 200,000 SVADs during the same period. Conclusions SAVM enables non-modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to analyze the potential population health effects of NVP use and public health interventions.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17152-yTobacco smokingVapingPrevalenceComputer simulationPopulation healthGermany |
| spellingShingle | Luz María Sánchez-Romero Alex C. Liber Yameng Li Zhe Yuan Jamie Tam Nargiz Travis Jihyoun Jeon Mona Issabakhsh Rafael Meza David T. Levy The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany BMC Public Health Tobacco smoking Vaping Prevalence Computer simulation Population health Germany |
| title | The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany |
| title_full | The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany |
| title_fullStr | The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany |
| title_full_unstemmed | The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany |
| title_short | The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany |
| title_sort | smoking and vaping model a user friendly model for examining the country specific impact of nicotine vaping product use application to germany |
| topic | Tobacco smoking Vaping Prevalence Computer simulation Population health Germany |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17152-y |
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