Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future
Climate shocks are causing increasingly severe damage and amplifying humanitarian needs. So far, humanitarian action has been mostly responsive, arriving after a crisis has materialized. With recent advances in forecasting, humanitarian and development organizations have been able to anticipate and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.932336/full |
| _version_ | 1811300643723280384 |
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| author | Juan Chaves-Gonzalez Leonardo Milano Leonardo Milano Dirk-Jan Omtzigt Daniel Pfister Josee Poirier Josee Poirier Ashley Pople Julia Wittig Zinta Zommers |
| author_facet | Juan Chaves-Gonzalez Leonardo Milano Leonardo Milano Dirk-Jan Omtzigt Daniel Pfister Josee Poirier Josee Poirier Ashley Pople Julia Wittig Zinta Zommers |
| author_sort | Juan Chaves-Gonzalez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate shocks are causing increasingly severe damage and amplifying humanitarian needs. So far, humanitarian action has been mostly responsive, arriving after a crisis has materialized. With recent advances in forecasting, humanitarian and development organizations have been able to anticipate and respond ahead of crises. “Anticipatory action” (AA) seeks to ensure aid is provided before the peak impact of a shock occurs, reducing suffering and humanitarian needs. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has been developing AA frameworks since 2019, coordinating collective AA and mobilizing finance. To date, these pilots have reached approximately 2.2 million people in Somalia, Ethiopia and Bangladesh. In six countries (Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Malawi, Nepal, Niger, and The Philippines), frameworks are in place to reach a further 2.3 million people should the triggers be reached. OCHA is facilitating the design of AA plans in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Mozambique and South Sudan. We share lessons from the pilots, focusing on three components: triggers, programming, and financing. We report that triggers must be sufficiently reliable to warrant action and funds disbursement. Forecasts are not available for all countries or hazards, and existing forecasts may not provide desired resolution or skill (accuracy) levels, especially at longer lead times. The timing of action therefore must balance forecast skill against operational needs. Funding is best when it is flexible and includes finance for framework design, evaluation and continued improvements. Finally we discuss the challenges and opportunities in scaling up AA. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T06:54:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ae9d033ed5e54ef7b5946547a6be9616 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2624-9553 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T06:54:23Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-ae9d033ed5e54ef7b5946547a6be96162022-12-22T02:57:18ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Climate2624-95532022-12-01410.3389/fclim.2022.932336932336Anticipatory action: Lessons for the futureJuan Chaves-Gonzalez0Leonardo Milano1Leonardo Milano2Dirk-Jan Omtzigt3Daniel Pfister4Josee Poirier5Josee Poirier6Ashley Pople7Julia Wittig8Zinta Zommers9United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York, NY, United StatesUnited Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York, NY, United StatesCentre for Humanitarian Data, United Nations OCHA, The Hague, NetherlandsUnited Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York, NY, United StatesUnited Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York, NY, United StatesUnited Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York, NY, United StatesCentre for Humanitarian Data, United Nations OCHA, The Hague, NetherlandsUnited Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York, NY, United StatesUnited Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York, NY, United StatesUnited Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York, NY, United StatesClimate shocks are causing increasingly severe damage and amplifying humanitarian needs. So far, humanitarian action has been mostly responsive, arriving after a crisis has materialized. With recent advances in forecasting, humanitarian and development organizations have been able to anticipate and respond ahead of crises. “Anticipatory action” (AA) seeks to ensure aid is provided before the peak impact of a shock occurs, reducing suffering and humanitarian needs. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has been developing AA frameworks since 2019, coordinating collective AA and mobilizing finance. To date, these pilots have reached approximately 2.2 million people in Somalia, Ethiopia and Bangladesh. In six countries (Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Malawi, Nepal, Niger, and The Philippines), frameworks are in place to reach a further 2.3 million people should the triggers be reached. OCHA is facilitating the design of AA plans in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Mozambique and South Sudan. We share lessons from the pilots, focusing on three components: triggers, programming, and financing. We report that triggers must be sufficiently reliable to warrant action and funds disbursement. Forecasts are not available for all countries or hazards, and existing forecasts may not provide desired resolution or skill (accuracy) levels, especially at longer lead times. The timing of action therefore must balance forecast skill against operational needs. Funding is best when it is flexible and includes finance for framework design, evaluation and continued improvements. Finally we discuss the challenges and opportunities in scaling up AA.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.932336/fullanticipatory actionpredictive analyticsfinancinghumanitarian programminghumanitarian responseclimate shocks |
| spellingShingle | Juan Chaves-Gonzalez Leonardo Milano Leonardo Milano Dirk-Jan Omtzigt Daniel Pfister Josee Poirier Josee Poirier Ashley Pople Julia Wittig Zinta Zommers Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future Frontiers in Climate anticipatory action predictive analytics financing humanitarian programming humanitarian response climate shocks |
| title | Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future |
| title_full | Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future |
| title_fullStr | Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future |
| title_full_unstemmed | Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future |
| title_short | Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future |
| title_sort | anticipatory action lessons for the future |
| topic | anticipatory action predictive analytics financing humanitarian programming humanitarian response climate shocks |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.932336/full |
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