Sovereign Risk Indices and Bayesian Theory Averaging
In economic applications, model averaging has found principal use in examining the validity of various theories related to observed heterogeneity in outcomes such as growth, development, and trade. Though often easy to articulate, these theories are imperfectly captured quantitatively. A number of d...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-05-01
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| Series: | Econometrics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/8/2/22 |
| _version_ | 1797566681671794688 |
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| author | Alex Lenkoski Fredrik L. Aanes |
| author_facet | Alex Lenkoski Fredrik L. Aanes |
| author_sort | Alex Lenkoski |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In economic applications, model averaging has found principal use in examining the validity of various theories related to observed heterogeneity in outcomes such as growth, development, and trade. Though often easy to articulate, these theories are imperfectly captured quantitatively. A number of different proxies are often collected for a given theory and the uneven nature of this collection requires care when employing model averaging. Furthermore, if valid, these theories ought to be relevant outside of any single narrowly focused outcome equation. We propose a methodology which treats theories as represented by latent indices, these latent processes controlled by model averaging on the proxy level. To achieve generalizability of the theory index our framework assumes a collection of outcome equations. We accommodate a flexible set of generalized additive models, enabling non-Gaussian outcomes to be included. Furthermore, selection of relevant theories also occurs on the outcome level, allowing for theories to be differentially valid. Our focus is on creating a set of theory-based indices directed at understanding a country’s potential risk of macroeconomic collapse. These Sovereign Risk Indices are calibrated across a set of different “collapse” criteria, including default on sovereign debt, heightened potential for high unemployment or inflation and dramatic swings in foreign exchange values. The goal of this exercise is to render a portable set of country/year theory indices which can find more general use in the research community. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:30:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-aed00ba2fb274bd5b5c64fc5eb1a24cd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-1146 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:30:56Z |
| publishDate | 2020-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Econometrics |
| spelling | doaj.art-aed00ba2fb274bd5b5c64fc5eb1a24cd2023-11-20T02:11:56ZengMDPI AGEconometrics2225-11462020-05-01822210.3390/econometrics8020022Sovereign Risk Indices and Bayesian Theory AveragingAlex Lenkoski0Fredrik L. Aanes1Norwegian Computing Center; Gaustadalleen 23a, Kristen Nygaards Hus, 0373 Oslo, NorwayNorwegian Computing Center; Gaustadalleen 23a, Kristen Nygaards Hus, 0373 Oslo, NorwayIn economic applications, model averaging has found principal use in examining the validity of various theories related to observed heterogeneity in outcomes such as growth, development, and trade. Though often easy to articulate, these theories are imperfectly captured quantitatively. A number of different proxies are often collected for a given theory and the uneven nature of this collection requires care when employing model averaging. Furthermore, if valid, these theories ought to be relevant outside of any single narrowly focused outcome equation. We propose a methodology which treats theories as represented by latent indices, these latent processes controlled by model averaging on the proxy level. To achieve generalizability of the theory index our framework assumes a collection of outcome equations. We accommodate a flexible set of generalized additive models, enabling non-Gaussian outcomes to be included. Furthermore, selection of relevant theories also occurs on the outcome level, allowing for theories to be differentially valid. Our focus is on creating a set of theory-based indices directed at understanding a country’s potential risk of macroeconomic collapse. These Sovereign Risk Indices are calibrated across a set of different “collapse” criteria, including default on sovereign debt, heightened potential for high unemployment or inflation and dramatic swings in foreign exchange values. The goal of this exercise is to render a portable set of country/year theory indices which can find more general use in the research community.https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/8/2/22Bayesian model averagingconditional Bayes factorssovereign debt defaultmacroeconomic forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Alex Lenkoski Fredrik L. Aanes Sovereign Risk Indices and Bayesian Theory Averaging Econometrics Bayesian model averaging conditional Bayes factors sovereign debt default macroeconomic forecasting |
| title | Sovereign Risk Indices and Bayesian Theory Averaging |
| title_full | Sovereign Risk Indices and Bayesian Theory Averaging |
| title_fullStr | Sovereign Risk Indices and Bayesian Theory Averaging |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sovereign Risk Indices and Bayesian Theory Averaging |
| title_short | Sovereign Risk Indices and Bayesian Theory Averaging |
| title_sort | sovereign risk indices and bayesian theory averaging |
| topic | Bayesian model averaging conditional Bayes factors sovereign debt default macroeconomic forecasting |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/8/2/22 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alexlenkoski sovereignriskindicesandbayesiantheoryaveraging AT fredriklaanes sovereignriskindicesandbayesiantheoryaveraging |