| Summary: | The semiconductor and display industries are key to the transition to a digital economy and are leading export industries that drive the economy of Korea. Concurrently, these industries are substantial contributors to the nation's greenhouse gas emissions. Emission reduction policies to maintain the sustainability of these industries and realize global carbon neutrality are urgently needed, and accurate emission forecasts are a prerequisite for this. Although greenhouse gas emission forecasts have been made for various industries, no such forecasts have been made for the semiconductor and display industries. This study aims to forecast emissions in Korea's semiconductor and display sector using an improved grey model that accounts for the reliability and predictability of limited data. The analysis showed that the IGM (1,3) provided the highest accuracy and reliability, and projected continuous increases in greenhouse gas emissions from the semiconductor and electronic components industries. Based on the results, this study recommends that: (1) greenhouse gas reduction technologies be developed and institutional adjustments made in the semiconductor and display sector to prepare for possible overseas export regulations, (2) industry-specific policies be created to address emission characteristics that differ from those in other industries, and (3) differentiated support policies be designed to reduce emissions not only in major corporations but also in small and medium-sized supply chain companies.
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