Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast
Abstract The system of oceanic flows constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moves heat and other properties to the subpolar North Atlantic, controlling regional climate, weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Climate models suggest a potential AMOC slowdown towards the end...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40848-z |
| _version_ | 1797558029026066432 |
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| author | Denis L. Volkov Kate Zhang William E. Johns Joshua K. Willis Will Hobbs Marlos Goes Hong Zhang Dimitris Menemenlis |
| author_facet | Denis L. Volkov Kate Zhang William E. Johns Joshua K. Willis Will Hobbs Marlos Goes Hong Zhang Dimitris Menemenlis |
| author_sort | Denis L. Volkov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The system of oceanic flows constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moves heat and other properties to the subpolar North Atlantic, controlling regional climate, weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Climate models suggest a potential AMOC slowdown towards the end of this century due to anthropogenic forcing, accelerating coastal sea level rise along the western boundary and dramatically increasing flood risk. While direct observations of the AMOC are still too short to infer long-term trends, we show here that the AMOC-induced changes in gyre-scale heat content, superimposed on the global mean sea level rise, are already influencing the frequency of floods along the United States southeastern seaboard. We find that ocean heat convergence, being the primary driver for interannual sea level changes in the subtropical North Atlantic, has led to an exceptional gyre-scale warming and associated dynamic sea level rise since 2010, accounting for 30-50% of flood days in 2015-2020. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:25:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-af2e3575ca194e24aad64c87e2c78e4a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:25:36Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-af2e3575ca194e24aad64c87e2c78e4a2023-11-20T10:12:18ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232023-08-0114111010.1038/s41467-023-40848-zAtlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coastDenis L. Volkov0Kate Zhang1William E. Johns2Joshua K. Willis3Will Hobbs4Marlos Goes5Hong Zhang6Dimitris Menemenlis7Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of MiamiJoint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California Los AngelesRosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of MiamiJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of TechnologyAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate ExtremesCooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of MiamiJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of TechnologyJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of TechnologyAbstract The system of oceanic flows constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moves heat and other properties to the subpolar North Atlantic, controlling regional climate, weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Climate models suggest a potential AMOC slowdown towards the end of this century due to anthropogenic forcing, accelerating coastal sea level rise along the western boundary and dramatically increasing flood risk. While direct observations of the AMOC are still too short to infer long-term trends, we show here that the AMOC-induced changes in gyre-scale heat content, superimposed on the global mean sea level rise, are already influencing the frequency of floods along the United States southeastern seaboard. We find that ocean heat convergence, being the primary driver for interannual sea level changes in the subtropical North Atlantic, has led to an exceptional gyre-scale warming and associated dynamic sea level rise since 2010, accounting for 30-50% of flood days in 2015-2020.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40848-z |
| spellingShingle | Denis L. Volkov Kate Zhang William E. Johns Joshua K. Willis Will Hobbs Marlos Goes Hong Zhang Dimitris Menemenlis Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast Nature Communications |
| title | Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast |
| title_full | Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast |
| title_fullStr | Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast |
| title_full_unstemmed | Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast |
| title_short | Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast |
| title_sort | atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the united states southeast coast |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40848-z |
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