Combatting Malaysia's Dengue Outbreaks with Auto-Dissemination Mosquito Traps: A Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic SIR Model
Classical mosquito control methods (e.g. chemical fogging) struggle to sustain long-term reductions in mosquito populations to combat vector-borne diseases like dengue. The Mosquito Home System (MHS) is an auto-dissemination mosquito trap, that kills mosquito larvae before they hatch into adult mosq...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Communication in Biomathematical Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/21839 |
| _version_ | 1797244999620886528 |
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| author | Jonathan Wells David Greenhalgh Yanfeng Liang Itamar Megiddo Wasi Ahmad Nazni Teoh Guat-Ney Han Lim Lee |
| author_facet | Jonathan Wells David Greenhalgh Yanfeng Liang Itamar Megiddo Wasi Ahmad Nazni Teoh Guat-Ney Han Lim Lee |
| author_sort | Jonathan Wells |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Classical mosquito control methods (e.g. chemical fogging) struggle to sustain long-term reductions in mosquito populations to combat vector-borne diseases like dengue. The Mosquito Home System (MHS) is an auto-dissemination mosquito trap, that kills mosquito larvae before they hatch into adult mosquitoes. A novel hybrid stochastic-deterministic model is presented, that successfully predicts the effect of deploying MHSs within high-rise flats in Selangor, Malaysia. Stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) equations (flats) are paired with an existing deterministic SIR model (wider Kuala Lumpur population). Model predictions provide excellent agreement with data from a 44 week MHS trial within the flats. The stochastic model is validated as a powerful tool for predicting short- and long-term impacts of deploying this style of trap within similar environments. Significant, sustainable reductions in mosquito populations are predicted when the MHS is active: with a mean of 9 (95% Uncertainty Range (UR): 1; 30) during the 44 week trial period, compared to 35 (95% UR: 1; 234) dengue cases with no MHSs. Long-term predictions for endemic equilibrium show MHSs significantly narrow the mosquito population distribution and reduce dengue prevalence: from a mean of 5 (95% UR: 0; 52) (no MHS), to 1 (95% UR: 0; 8) dengue cases annually (with MHS). |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T19:19:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-af3e228e42cf4033a53a604da4b19c1a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2549-2896 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T19:19:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communication in Biomathematical Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-af3e228e42cf4033a53a604da4b19c1a2024-03-26T01:29:13ZengIndonesian Bio-Mathematical SocietyCommunication in Biomathematical Sciences2549-28962023-12-016216918810.5614/cbms.2023.6.2.722437Combatting Malaysia's Dengue Outbreaks with Auto-Dissemination Mosquito Traps: A Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic SIR ModelJonathan Wells0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5047-6224David Greenhalgh1Yanfeng Liang2Itamar Megiddo3Wasi Ahmad Nazni4Teoh Guat-Ney5Han Lim Lee6Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK & Public Health Scotland, Glasgow G2 6QE, Scotland, UKDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UKDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UKDepartment of Management Science University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 0QU, UKMedical Entomology Unit, Institute for Medical Research Jalan Pahang, Kuala Lumpur 50588, MalaysiaMedical Entomology Unit, Institute for Medical Research Jalan Pahang, Kuala Lumpur 50588, MalaysiaVector-Borne Disease Control Branch Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Putrajaya, Putrajaya 62590, MalaysiaClassical mosquito control methods (e.g. chemical fogging) struggle to sustain long-term reductions in mosquito populations to combat vector-borne diseases like dengue. The Mosquito Home System (MHS) is an auto-dissemination mosquito trap, that kills mosquito larvae before they hatch into adult mosquitoes. A novel hybrid stochastic-deterministic model is presented, that successfully predicts the effect of deploying MHSs within high-rise flats in Selangor, Malaysia. Stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) equations (flats) are paired with an existing deterministic SIR model (wider Kuala Lumpur population). Model predictions provide excellent agreement with data from a 44 week MHS trial within the flats. The stochastic model is validated as a powerful tool for predicting short- and long-term impacts of deploying this style of trap within similar environments. Significant, sustainable reductions in mosquito populations are predicted when the MHS is active: with a mean of 9 (95% Uncertainty Range (UR): 1; 30) during the 44 week trial period, compared to 35 (95% UR: 1; 234) dengue cases with no MHSs. Long-term predictions for endemic equilibrium show MHSs significantly narrow the mosquito population distribution and reduce dengue prevalence: from a mean of 5 (95% UR: 0; 52) (no MHS), to 1 (95% UR: 0; 8) dengue cases annually (with MHS).https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/21839dengueauto-dissemination mosquito trapmosquito home systemaedes mosquitoesmalaysiasir modelordinary differential equationsstochasticdeterministicvector-borne |
| spellingShingle | Jonathan Wells David Greenhalgh Yanfeng Liang Itamar Megiddo Wasi Ahmad Nazni Teoh Guat-Ney Han Lim Lee Combatting Malaysia's Dengue Outbreaks with Auto-Dissemination Mosquito Traps: A Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic SIR Model Communication in Biomathematical Sciences dengue auto-dissemination mosquito trap mosquito home system aedes mosquitoes malaysia sir model ordinary differential equations stochastic deterministic vector-borne |
| title | Combatting Malaysia's Dengue Outbreaks with Auto-Dissemination Mosquito Traps: A Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic SIR Model |
| title_full | Combatting Malaysia's Dengue Outbreaks with Auto-Dissemination Mosquito Traps: A Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic SIR Model |
| title_fullStr | Combatting Malaysia's Dengue Outbreaks with Auto-Dissemination Mosquito Traps: A Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic SIR Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Combatting Malaysia's Dengue Outbreaks with Auto-Dissemination Mosquito Traps: A Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic SIR Model |
| title_short | Combatting Malaysia's Dengue Outbreaks with Auto-Dissemination Mosquito Traps: A Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic SIR Model |
| title_sort | combatting malaysia s dengue outbreaks with auto dissemination mosquito traps a hybrid stochastic deterministic sir model |
| topic | dengue auto-dissemination mosquito trap mosquito home system aedes mosquitoes malaysia sir model ordinary differential equations stochastic deterministic vector-borne |
| url | https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/21839 |
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