Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling
Understanding the impacts of tsunamis, especially in terms of damage and losses, is important for disaster mitigation and management. The aim of this study is to present our estimations of the potential losses from tsunami damage on Okinawa Island. We combine the use of a tsunami hazard map and our...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2019-08-01
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| Series: | Geosciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/8/349 |
| _version_ | 1818911914171826176 |
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| author | Kwanchai Pakoksung Anawat Suppasri Kazuyo Matsubae Fumihiko Imamura |
| author_facet | Kwanchai Pakoksung Anawat Suppasri Kazuyo Matsubae Fumihiko Imamura |
| author_sort | Kwanchai Pakoksung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding the impacts of tsunamis, especially in terms of damage and losses, is important for disaster mitigation and management. The aim of this study is to present our estimations of the potential losses from tsunami damage on Okinawa Island. We combine the use of a tsunami hazard map and our proposed economic loss model to estimate the potential losses that would be sustained by Okinawa Island in the event of a tsunami. First, to produce the tsunami hazard map, we calculated tsunami flow characteristics using the mathematical model TUNAMI-N2 and incorporating 6 earthquake fault scenarios around the study area. The earthquake scenarios are based on historical records along the Ryukyu Trench and the Okinawa. The resulting inundation map is overlaid with economic land use type and topography maps to identify vulnerable regions, which are then employed to compute potential economic losses. Second, we used our proposed economic model for this study area to calculate the potential losses that would be sustained in these vulnerable regions. Our economic model extends the multi-regional-input-output (MRIO) model, where the economic values of industrial sectors are scaled to correlate with land use and topography types (coastal and inland areas) to calculate losses through the Chenery−Moses estimation method. Direct losses can be estimated from the total input of the MRIO table, while indirect losses are computed from the direct losses and interaction parameter of the MRIO table. The interaction parameter is formed by linear programming and calculated using the Leontief methodology. Our results show that the maximum total damaged area under the 6 earthquake scenarios is approximately 30 km<sup>2</sup>. Inundation ranging from 2.0 to 5.0 m in depth covers the largest area of approximately 10 km<sup>2</sup> and is followed by areas with inundation depths of 1.0−2.0 m and >5.0 m. Our findings show that direct losses will occur, while indirect losses are only approximately 56% that of direct losses. This approach could be applied to other areas and tsunami scenarios, which will aid disaster management and adaptation policies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T23:06:16Z |
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| issn | 2076-3263 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T23:06:16Z |
| publishDate | 2019-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-af760d66e31b411faa50f92e33f74c092022-12-21T20:02:22ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632019-08-019834910.3390/geosciences9080349geosciences9080349Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output ModelingKwanchai Pakoksung0Anawat Suppasri1Kazuyo Matsubae2Fumihiko Imamura3International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, 468-1 Aramaki-Aza, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, JapanInternational Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, 468-1 Aramaki-Aza, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, JapanEnvironmental and Energy Economics Laboratory, Division of Environment Studies, Department of Environmental Studies for Advanced Society, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, 468-1 Aramaki-Aza, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, JapanInternational Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, 468-1 Aramaki-Aza, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, JapanUnderstanding the impacts of tsunamis, especially in terms of damage and losses, is important for disaster mitigation and management. The aim of this study is to present our estimations of the potential losses from tsunami damage on Okinawa Island. We combine the use of a tsunami hazard map and our proposed economic loss model to estimate the potential losses that would be sustained by Okinawa Island in the event of a tsunami. First, to produce the tsunami hazard map, we calculated tsunami flow characteristics using the mathematical model TUNAMI-N2 and incorporating 6 earthquake fault scenarios around the study area. The earthquake scenarios are based on historical records along the Ryukyu Trench and the Okinawa. The resulting inundation map is overlaid with economic land use type and topography maps to identify vulnerable regions, which are then employed to compute potential economic losses. Second, we used our proposed economic model for this study area to calculate the potential losses that would be sustained in these vulnerable regions. Our economic model extends the multi-regional-input-output (MRIO) model, where the economic values of industrial sectors are scaled to correlate with land use and topography types (coastal and inland areas) to calculate losses through the Chenery−Moses estimation method. Direct losses can be estimated from the total input of the MRIO table, while indirect losses are computed from the direct losses and interaction parameter of the MRIO table. The interaction parameter is formed by linear programming and calculated using the Leontief methodology. Our results show that the maximum total damaged area under the 6 earthquake scenarios is approximately 30 km<sup>2</sup>. Inundation ranging from 2.0 to 5.0 m in depth covers the largest area of approximately 10 km<sup>2</sup> and is followed by areas with inundation depths of 1.0−2.0 m and >5.0 m. Our findings show that direct losses will occur, while indirect losses are only approximately 56% that of direct losses. This approach could be applied to other areas and tsunami scenarios, which will aid disaster management and adaptation policies.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/8/349tsunami hazardtsunami modelingtsunami economic lossesInput-Output table |
| spellingShingle | Kwanchai Pakoksung Anawat Suppasri Kazuyo Matsubae Fumihiko Imamura Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling Geosciences tsunami hazard tsunami modeling tsunami economic losses Input-Output table |
| title | Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling |
| title_full | Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling |
| title_fullStr | Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling |
| title_short | Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling |
| title_sort | estimating tsunami economic losses of okinawa island with multi regional input output modeling |
| topic | tsunami hazard tsunami modeling tsunami economic losses Input-Output table |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/8/349 |
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