Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences?
Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to test ecological theory and to direct targeted surveys for species of conservation concern. Several studies have tested for an influence of species traits on the predictive accuracy of SDMs. However, most used the same set of environmental predi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6254 |
| _version_ | 1819068752309780480 |
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| author | Jenny L. McCune Hanna Rosner‐Katz Joseph R. Bennett Richard Schuster Heather M. Kharouba |
| author_facet | Jenny L. McCune Hanna Rosner‐Katz Joseph R. Bennett Richard Schuster Heather M. Kharouba |
| author_sort | Jenny L. McCune |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to test ecological theory and to direct targeted surveys for species of conservation concern. Several studies have tested for an influence of species traits on the predictive accuracy of SDMs. However, most used the same set of environmental predictors for all species and/or did not use truly independent data to test SDM accuracy. We built eight SDMs for each of 24 plant species of conservation concern, varying the environmental predictors included in each SDM version. We then measured the accuracy of each SDM using independent presence and absence data to calculate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true positive rate (TPR). We used generalized linear mixed models to test for a relationship between species traits and SDM accuracy, while accounting for variation in SDM performance that might be introduced by different predictor sets. All traits affected one or both SDM accuracy measures. Species with lighter seeds, animal‐dispersed seeds, and a higher density of occurrences had higher AUC and TPR than other species, all else being equal. Long‐lived woody species had higher AUC than herbaceous species, but lower TPR. These results support the hypothesis that the strength of species–environment correlations is affected by characteristics of species or their geographic distributions. However, because each species has multiple traits, and because AUC and TPR can be affected differently, there is no straightforward way to determine a priori which species will yield useful SDMs based on their traits. Most species yielded at least one useful SDM. Therefore, it is worthwhile to build and test SDMs for the purpose of finding new populations of plant species of conservation concern, regardless of these species’ traits. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T16:39:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-af8ad9cabd274da885afa80652e19d2c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T16:39:08Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-af8ad9cabd274da885afa80652e19d2c2022-12-21T18:57:09ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582020-06-0110115001501410.1002/ece3.6254Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences?Jenny L. McCune0Hanna Rosner‐Katz1Joseph R. Bennett2Richard Schuster3Heather M. Kharouba4Geomatics and Landscape Ecology Research Laboratory Department of Biology Carleton University Ottawa ON CanadaGeomatics and Landscape Ecology Research Laboratory Department of Biology Carleton University Ottawa ON CanadaGeomatics and Landscape Ecology Research Laboratory Department of Biology Carleton University Ottawa ON CanadaGeomatics and Landscape Ecology Research Laboratory Department of Biology Carleton University Ottawa ON CanadaDepartment of Biology University of Ottawa Ottawa ON CanadaAbstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to test ecological theory and to direct targeted surveys for species of conservation concern. Several studies have tested for an influence of species traits on the predictive accuracy of SDMs. However, most used the same set of environmental predictors for all species and/or did not use truly independent data to test SDM accuracy. We built eight SDMs for each of 24 plant species of conservation concern, varying the environmental predictors included in each SDM version. We then measured the accuracy of each SDM using independent presence and absence data to calculate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true positive rate (TPR). We used generalized linear mixed models to test for a relationship between species traits and SDM accuracy, while accounting for variation in SDM performance that might be introduced by different predictor sets. All traits affected one or both SDM accuracy measures. Species with lighter seeds, animal‐dispersed seeds, and a higher density of occurrences had higher AUC and TPR than other species, all else being equal. Long‐lived woody species had higher AUC than herbaceous species, but lower TPR. These results support the hypothesis that the strength of species–environment correlations is affected by characteristics of species or their geographic distributions. However, because each species has multiple traits, and because AUC and TPR can be affected differently, there is no straightforward way to determine a priori which species will yield useful SDMs based on their traits. Most species yielded at least one useful SDM. Therefore, it is worthwhile to build and test SDMs for the purpose of finding new populations of plant species of conservation concern, regardless of these species’ traits.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6254dispersalgeneralistlifespanniche modelsrange sizespecialist |
| spellingShingle | Jenny L. McCune Hanna Rosner‐Katz Joseph R. Bennett Richard Schuster Heather M. Kharouba Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences? Ecology and Evolution dispersal generalist lifespan niche models range size specialist |
| title | Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences? |
| title_full | Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences? |
| title_fullStr | Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences? |
| title_short | Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences? |
| title_sort | do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences |
| topic | dispersal generalist lifespan niche models range size specialist |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6254 |
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