Mathematical Model of the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Outbreaks of Some Emerging Pathogens
Preparation for outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is often predicated on beliefs that we will be able to understand the epidemiological nature of an outbreak early into its inception. However, since many rare emerging diseases exhibit different epidemiological behaviors from outbreak to outb...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/5/4/184 |
| _version_ | 1797545259697176576 |
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| author | Nourridine Siewe Bradford Greening Nina H. Fefferman |
| author_facet | Nourridine Siewe Bradford Greening Nina H. Fefferman |
| author_sort | Nourridine Siewe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Preparation for outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is often predicated on beliefs that we will be able to understand the epidemiological nature of an outbreak early into its inception. However, since many rare emerging diseases exhibit different epidemiological behaviors from outbreak to outbreak, early and accurate estimation of the epidemiological situation may not be straightforward in all cases. Previous studies have proposed considering the role of active asymptomatic infections co-emerging and co-circulating as part of the process of emergence of a novel pathogen. Thus far, consideration of the role of asymptomatic infections in emerging disease dynamics have usually avoided considering some important sets of influences. In this paper, we present and analyze a mathematical model to explore the hypothetical scenario that some (re)emerging diseases may actually be able to maintain stable, endemic circulation successfully in an entirely asymptomatic state. We argue that an understanding of this potential mechanism for diversity in observed epidemiological dynamics may be of considerable importance in understanding and preparing for outbreaks of novel and/or emerging diseases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:12:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-afdf4d7f50e44717b9b95aac7360f982 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2414-6366 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:12:58Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
| spelling | doaj.art-afdf4d7f50e44717b9b95aac7360f9822023-11-21T00:04:50ZengMDPI AGTropical Medicine and Infectious Disease2414-63662020-12-015418410.3390/tropicalmed5040184Mathematical Model of the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Outbreaks of Some Emerging PathogensNourridine Siewe0Bradford Greening1Nina H. Fefferman2School of Mathematical Sciences, Rochester Institute of Technology, College of Sciences, 1 Lomb Memorial Dr, Rochester, NY 14623, USACenters for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30329, USADepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, College of Sciences, The University of Tennessee, 447 Hesler, 569 Dabney Hall, 1416 Circle Dr, Knoxville, TN 37996-1610, USAPreparation for outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is often predicated on beliefs that we will be able to understand the epidemiological nature of an outbreak early into its inception. However, since many rare emerging diseases exhibit different epidemiological behaviors from outbreak to outbreak, early and accurate estimation of the epidemiological situation may not be straightforward in all cases. Previous studies have proposed considering the role of active asymptomatic infections co-emerging and co-circulating as part of the process of emergence of a novel pathogen. Thus far, consideration of the role of asymptomatic infections in emerging disease dynamics have usually avoided considering some important sets of influences. In this paper, we present and analyze a mathematical model to explore the hypothetical scenario that some (re)emerging diseases may actually be able to maintain stable, endemic circulation successfully in an entirely asymptomatic state. We argue that an understanding of this potential mechanism for diversity in observed epidemiological dynamics may be of considerable importance in understanding and preparing for outbreaks of novel and/or emerging diseases.https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/5/4/184emerging and reemerging diseaseasymptomatic infectiondisease outbreaks |
| spellingShingle | Nourridine Siewe Bradford Greening Nina H. Fefferman Mathematical Model of the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Outbreaks of Some Emerging Pathogens Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease emerging and reemerging disease asymptomatic infection disease outbreaks |
| title | Mathematical Model of the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Outbreaks of Some Emerging Pathogens |
| title_full | Mathematical Model of the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Outbreaks of Some Emerging Pathogens |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical Model of the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Outbreaks of Some Emerging Pathogens |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical Model of the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Outbreaks of Some Emerging Pathogens |
| title_short | Mathematical Model of the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Outbreaks of Some Emerging Pathogens |
| title_sort | mathematical model of the role of asymptomatic infection in outbreaks of some emerging pathogens |
| topic | emerging and reemerging disease asymptomatic infection disease outbreaks |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/5/4/184 |
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