Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Oceans |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/2/2/24 |
| _version_ | 1797530619874377728 |
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| author | Christian Dominguez James M. Done Cindy L. Bruyère |
| author_facet | Christian Dominguez James M. Done Cindy L. Bruyère |
| author_sort | Christian Dominguez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:31:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b01d5bab17774dc2b8bae6af91acee0f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2673-1924 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:31:33Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Oceans |
| spelling | doaj.art-b01d5bab17774dc2b8bae6af91acee0f2023-11-21T23:38:00ZengMDPI AGOceans2673-19242021-06-012242944710.3390/oceans2020024Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North AmericaChristian Dominguez0James M. Done1Cindy L. Bruyère2Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Mexico City 04510, MexicoNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USANational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USATropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/2/2/24tropical cycloneseasterly wavesfuture changes in rainfallchanges in tropical cyclogenesis |
| spellingShingle | Christian Dominguez James M. Done Cindy L. Bruyère Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America Oceans tropical cyclones easterly waves future changes in rainfall changes in tropical cyclogenesis |
| title | Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
| title_full | Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
| title_fullStr | Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
| title_short | Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
| title_sort | future changes in tropical cyclone and easterly wave characteristics over tropical north america |
| topic | tropical cyclones easterly waves future changes in rainfall changes in tropical cyclogenesis |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/2/2/24 |
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