Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application
This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km<sup>2</sup> Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effect...
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MDPI AG
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/11/2/25 |
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| author | Jhon B. Valencia Vladimir V. Guryanov Jeison Mesa-Diez Nilton Diaz Daniel Escobar-Carbonari Artyom V. Gusarov |
| author_facet | Jhon B. Valencia Vladimir V. Guryanov Jeison Mesa-Diez Nilton Diaz Daniel Escobar-Carbonari Artyom V. Gusarov |
| author_sort | Jhon B. Valencia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km<sup>2</sup> Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin’s annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin’s water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m<sup>3</sup>/s to 6397.5 m<sup>3</sup>/s, and to 6101.5 m<sup>3</sup>/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T22:29:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b02410dc219f4b89b2728fecd5d211a6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T22:29:57Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj.art-b02410dc219f4b89b2728fecd5d211a62024-02-23T15:19:01ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382024-02-011122510.3390/hydrology11020025Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model ApplicationJhon B. Valencia0Vladimir V. Guryanov1Jeison Mesa-Diez2Nilton Diaz3Daniel Escobar-Carbonari4Artyom V. Gusarov5Institute of Environmental Sciences, Kazan Federal University, 420008 Kazan, RussiaInstitute of Environmental Sciences, Kazan Federal University, 420008 Kazan, RussiaEscuela de Estadística, Universidad del Valle, Calle 13 No. 100-00—Edificio E43, Santiago de Cali 760042, ColombiaClimate Action, Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Palmira 763537, ColombiaClimate Action, Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Palmira 763537, ColombiaInstitute of Geology and Petroleum Technologies, Kazan Federal University, 420008 Kazan, RussiaThis paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km<sup>2</sup> Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin’s annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin’s water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m<sup>3</sup>/s to 6397.5 m<sup>3</sup>/s, and to 6101.5 m<sup>3</sup>/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/11/2/25water balancehydrological modelclimate changeCMIP6 scenariosOrinoco River |
| spellingShingle | Jhon B. Valencia Vladimir V. Guryanov Jeison Mesa-Diez Nilton Diaz Daniel Escobar-Carbonari Artyom V. Gusarov Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application Hydrology water balance hydrological model climate change CMIP6 scenarios Orinoco River |
| title | Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application |
| title_full | Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application |
| title_fullStr | Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application |
| title_short | Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application |
| title_sort | predictive assessment of climate change impact on water yield in the meta river basin colombia an invest model application |
| topic | water balance hydrological model climate change CMIP6 scenarios Orinoco River |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/11/2/25 |
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