Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Thrombocytopenia in Adults with Acute Pancreatitis
Hongbin Deng,1,* Xianqiang Yu,2,* Kun Gao,1 Yang Liu,3 Zhihui Tong,1 Yuxiu Liu,1 Weiqin Li1– 3 1Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, People’s Republ...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Dove Medical Press
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Inflammation Research |
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| Online Access: | https://www.dovepress.com/dynamic-nomogram-for-predicting-thrombocytopenia-in-adults-with-acute--peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-JIR |
| _version_ | 1818694793449963520 |
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| author | Deng H Yu X Gao K Liu Y Tong Z Liu Y Li W |
| author_facet | Deng H Yu X Gao K Liu Y Tong Z Liu Y Li W |
| author_sort | Deng H |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Hongbin Deng,1,* Xianqiang Yu,2,* Kun Gao,1 Yang Liu,3 Zhihui Tong,1 Yuxiu Liu,1 Weiqin Li1– 3 1Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Weiqin Li; Yuxiu Liu Email liweiqindr@nju.edu.cn; Liu_yuxiu@163.comObjective: Thrombocytopenia increases the risk of hemorrhage in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), leading to poor clinical outcomes. Currently, there is no reliable tool for the early assessment of thrombocytopenia in these patients. We aimed to develop a nomogram based on available clinical parameters and validate its efficacy in predicting thrombocytopenia.Methods: This was a retrospective study. All the data were extracted from an electronic database from May 2018 to May 2019. Patients with a diagnosis of AP and staying in the intensive care unit for more than 3 days were retrospectively analyzed. A clinical signature was built based on reproducible features, using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method (LASSO), and logistic regression established the model (P < 0.05). Nomogram performance was determined by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.Results: A total of 594 eligible patients were enrolled, of whom 399 were allocated to the training sets and the 195 in the test sets. The clinical features, including blood urea nitrogen (BUN), fibrinogen (FIB), and antithrombase III, were significantly associated with the incidence of thrombocytopenia after acute pancreatitis (p < 0.05) in training sets. The individualized nomogram showed good discrimination in the training sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.881) and in the validation sample (AUC, 0.883) with good calibration.Conclusion: The proposed nomogram has good performance for predicting thrombocytopenia in patients with acute pancreatitis and may facilitate clinical decision-making.Keywords: acute pancreatitis, thrombocytopenia, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, coagulopathy, nomogram |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T13:35:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b029166d3a7c48b4b261bd2e04f11432 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1178-7031 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T13:35:13Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Dove Medical Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Inflammation Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-b029166d3a7c48b4b261bd2e04f114322022-12-21T21:46:27ZengDove Medical PressJournal of Inflammation Research1178-70312021-12-01Volume 146657666771311Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Thrombocytopenia in Adults with Acute PancreatitisDeng HYu XGao KLiu YTong ZLiu YLi WHongbin Deng,1,* Xianqiang Yu,2,* Kun Gao,1 Yang Liu,3 Zhihui Tong,1 Yuxiu Liu,1 Weiqin Li1– 3 1Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Weiqin Li; Yuxiu Liu Email liweiqindr@nju.edu.cn; Liu_yuxiu@163.comObjective: Thrombocytopenia increases the risk of hemorrhage in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), leading to poor clinical outcomes. Currently, there is no reliable tool for the early assessment of thrombocytopenia in these patients. We aimed to develop a nomogram based on available clinical parameters and validate its efficacy in predicting thrombocytopenia.Methods: This was a retrospective study. All the data were extracted from an electronic database from May 2018 to May 2019. Patients with a diagnosis of AP and staying in the intensive care unit for more than 3 days were retrospectively analyzed. A clinical signature was built based on reproducible features, using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method (LASSO), and logistic regression established the model (P < 0.05). Nomogram performance was determined by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.Results: A total of 594 eligible patients were enrolled, of whom 399 were allocated to the training sets and the 195 in the test sets. The clinical features, including blood urea nitrogen (BUN), fibrinogen (FIB), and antithrombase III, were significantly associated with the incidence of thrombocytopenia after acute pancreatitis (p < 0.05) in training sets. The individualized nomogram showed good discrimination in the training sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.881) and in the validation sample (AUC, 0.883) with good calibration.Conclusion: The proposed nomogram has good performance for predicting thrombocytopenia in patients with acute pancreatitis and may facilitate clinical decision-making.Keywords: acute pancreatitis, thrombocytopenia, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, coagulopathy, nomogramhttps://www.dovepress.com/dynamic-nomogram-for-predicting-thrombocytopenia-in-adults-with-acute--peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-JIRacute pancreatitisthrombocytopeniasystemic inflammatory response syndromecoagulopathynomogram |
| spellingShingle | Deng H Yu X Gao K Liu Y Tong Z Liu Y Li W Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Thrombocytopenia in Adults with Acute Pancreatitis Journal of Inflammation Research acute pancreatitis thrombocytopenia systemic inflammatory response syndrome coagulopathy nomogram |
| title | Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Thrombocytopenia in Adults with Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_full | Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Thrombocytopenia in Adults with Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Thrombocytopenia in Adults with Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Thrombocytopenia in Adults with Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_short | Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Thrombocytopenia in Adults with Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_sort | dynamic nomogram for predicting thrombocytopenia in adults with acute pancreatitis |
| topic | acute pancreatitis thrombocytopenia systemic inflammatory response syndrome coagulopathy nomogram |
| url | https://www.dovepress.com/dynamic-nomogram-for-predicting-thrombocytopenia-in-adults-with-acute--peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-JIR |
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