Extended SEIQR type model for COVID-19 epidemic and data analysis
An extended SEIQR type model is considered in order to model the COVID-19 epidemic. It contains the classes of susceptible individuals, exposed, infected symptomatic and asymptomatic, quarantined, hospitalized and recovered. The basic reproduction number and the final size of epidemic are determined...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2020386?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1818403302707036160 |
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| author | Swarnali Sharma Vitaly Volpert Malay Banerjee |
| author_facet | Swarnali Sharma Vitaly Volpert Malay Banerjee |
| author_sort | Swarnali Sharma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | An extended SEIQR type model is considered in order to model the COVID-19 epidemic. It contains the classes of susceptible individuals, exposed, infected symptomatic and asymptomatic, quarantined, hospitalized and recovered. The basic reproduction number and the final size of epidemic are determined. The model is used to fit available data for some European countries. A more detailed model with two different subclasses of susceptible individuals is introduced in order to study the influence of social interaction on the disease progression. The coefficient of social interaction K characterizes the level of social contacts in comparison with complete lockdown (K=0) and the absence of lockdown (K=1). The fitting of data shows that the actual level of this coefficient in some European countries is about 0.1, characterizing a slow disease progression. A slight increase of this value in the autumn can lead to a strong epidemic burst. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T08:22:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b06075d1e5774abd8b7915b9b36866fd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T08:22:06Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-b06075d1e5774abd8b7915b9b36866fd2022-12-21T23:09:47ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182020-11-011767562760410.3934/mbe.2020386Extended SEIQR type model for COVID-19 epidemic and data analysisSwarnali Sharma0Vitaly Volpert1Malay Banerjee21. Department of Mathematics, Vijaygarh Jyotish Ray College, Kolkata - 700032, India2. Institut Camille Jordan, UMR 5208 CNRS, University Lyon 1, 69622 Villeurbanne, France 3. INRIA Team Dracula, INRIA Lyon La Doua, 69603 Villeurbanne, France 4. Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation5. Department of Mathematics & Statistics, IIT Kanpur, Kanpur - 208016, IndiaAn extended SEIQR type model is considered in order to model the COVID-19 epidemic. It contains the classes of susceptible individuals, exposed, infected symptomatic and asymptomatic, quarantined, hospitalized and recovered. The basic reproduction number and the final size of epidemic are determined. The model is used to fit available data for some European countries. A more detailed model with two different subclasses of susceptible individuals is introduced in order to study the influence of social interaction on the disease progression. The coefficient of social interaction K characterizes the level of social contacts in comparison with complete lockdown (K=0) and the absence of lockdown (K=1). The fitting of data shows that the actual level of this coefficient in some European countries is about 0.1, characterizing a slow disease progression. A slight increase of this value in the autumn can lead to a strong epidemic burst.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2020386?viewType=HTMLcovid-19reproduction numbertwo group modelrelapse |
| spellingShingle | Swarnali Sharma Vitaly Volpert Malay Banerjee Extended SEIQR type model for COVID-19 epidemic and data analysis Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering covid-19 reproduction number two group model relapse |
| title | Extended SEIQR type model for COVID-19 epidemic and data analysis |
| title_full | Extended SEIQR type model for COVID-19 epidemic and data analysis |
| title_fullStr | Extended SEIQR type model for COVID-19 epidemic and data analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extended SEIQR type model for COVID-19 epidemic and data analysis |
| title_short | Extended SEIQR type model for COVID-19 epidemic and data analysis |
| title_sort | extended seiqr type model for covid 19 epidemic and data analysis |
| topic | covid-19 reproduction number two group model relapse |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2020386?viewType=HTML |
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