Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies.
Temporal hierarchies have been widely used during the past few years as they are capable to provide more accurate coherent forecasts at different planning horizons. However, they still display some limitations, being mainly subject to the forecasting methods used for generating the base forecasts an...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2019-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0223422 |
| _version_ | 1818590818443722752 |
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| author | Evangelos Spiliotis Fotios Petropoulos Vassilios Assimakopoulos |
| author_facet | Evangelos Spiliotis Fotios Petropoulos Vassilios Assimakopoulos |
| author_sort | Evangelos Spiliotis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Temporal hierarchies have been widely used during the past few years as they are capable to provide more accurate coherent forecasts at different planning horizons. However, they still display some limitations, being mainly subject to the forecasting methods used for generating the base forecasts and the particularities of the examined series. This paper deals with such limitations by considering three different strategies: (i) combining forecasts of multiple methods, (ii) applying bias adjustments and (iii) selectively implementing temporal hierarchies to avoid seasonal shrinkage. The proposed strategies can be applied either separately or simultaneously, being complements to the method considered for reconciling the base forecasts and completely independent from each other. Their effect is evaluated using the monthly series of the M and M3 competitions. The results are very promising, displaying lots of potential for improving the performance of temporal hierarchies, both in terms of accuracy and bias. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T10:02:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b06b3feddc03402a92d7731a44d0327e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T10:02:35Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-b06b3feddc03402a92d7731a44d0327e2022-12-21T22:35:45ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032019-01-011410e022342210.1371/journal.pone.0223422Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies.Evangelos SpiliotisFotios PetropoulosVassilios AssimakopoulosTemporal hierarchies have been widely used during the past few years as they are capable to provide more accurate coherent forecasts at different planning horizons. However, they still display some limitations, being mainly subject to the forecasting methods used for generating the base forecasts and the particularities of the examined series. This paper deals with such limitations by considering three different strategies: (i) combining forecasts of multiple methods, (ii) applying bias adjustments and (iii) selectively implementing temporal hierarchies to avoid seasonal shrinkage. The proposed strategies can be applied either separately or simultaneously, being complements to the method considered for reconciling the base forecasts and completely independent from each other. Their effect is evaluated using the monthly series of the M and M3 competitions. The results are very promising, displaying lots of potential for improving the performance of temporal hierarchies, both in terms of accuracy and bias.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0223422 |
| spellingShingle | Evangelos Spiliotis Fotios Petropoulos Vassilios Assimakopoulos Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies. PLoS ONE |
| title | Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies. |
| title_full | Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies. |
| title_fullStr | Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies. |
| title_short | Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies. |
| title_sort | improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0223422 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT evangelosspiliotis improvingtheforecastingperformanceoftemporalhierarchies AT fotiospetropoulos improvingtheforecastingperformanceoftemporalhierarchies AT vassiliosassimakopoulos improvingtheforecastingperformanceoftemporalhierarchies |