Climate Change Impacts on Nitrate Leaching and Groundwater Nitrate Dynamics Using a Holistic Approach and Med-CORDEX Climatic Models
This study presents the projected future evolution of water resource balance and nitrate pollution under various climate change scenarios and climatic models using a holistic approach. The study area is Almyros Basin and its aquifer system, located in Central Greece, Thessaly, Greece. Almyros Basin...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/3/465 |
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| author | Aikaterini Lyra Athanasios Loukas Pantelis Sidiropoulos Lampros Vasiliades |
| author_facet | Aikaterini Lyra Athanasios Loukas Pantelis Sidiropoulos Lampros Vasiliades |
| author_sort | Aikaterini Lyra |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study presents the projected future evolution of water resource balance and nitrate pollution under various climate change scenarios and climatic models using a holistic approach. The study area is Almyros Basin and its aquifer system, located in Central Greece, Thessaly, Greece. Almyros Basin is a coastal agricultural basin and faces the exacerbation of water deficit and groundwater nitrate pollution. Using an Integrated Modeling System (IMS), which consists of the surface hydrology model (UTHBAL), the nitrate leachate model (REPIC, an R-ArcGIS-based EPIC model), the groundwater hydrology model (MODFLOW), and the nitrates’ advection, dispersion, and transport model (MT3MDS), the projected values of the variables of water quantity and quality are simulated. Nineteen climatic models from the Med-CORDEX database were bias-corrected with the Quantile Empirical Mapping method and employed to capture the variability in the simulated surface and groundwater water balance and nitrate dynamics. The findings indicate that future precipitation, runoff, and groundwater recharge will decrease while temperature and potential evapotranspiration will increase. Climate change will lead to reduced nitrogen leaching, lower groundwater levels, and persistent nitrate pollution; however, it will be accompanied by high variability and uncertainty, as simulations of IMS under multiple climatic models indicate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T03:47:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b0ceb6fb3e894c878029854ebd1b9ace |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T03:47:07Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-b0ceb6fb3e894c878029854ebd1b9ace2024-02-09T15:24:48ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412024-01-0116346510.3390/w16030465Climate Change Impacts on Nitrate Leaching and Groundwater Nitrate Dynamics Using a Holistic Approach and Med-CORDEX Climatic ModelsAikaterini Lyra0Athanasios Loukas1Pantelis Sidiropoulos2Lampros Vasiliades3Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Thessaly, 38334 Volos, GreeceLaboratory of Hydraulic Works and Environmental Management, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceLaboratory of Hydraulic Works and Environmental Management, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceLaboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Thessaly, 38334 Volos, GreeceThis study presents the projected future evolution of water resource balance and nitrate pollution under various climate change scenarios and climatic models using a holistic approach. The study area is Almyros Basin and its aquifer system, located in Central Greece, Thessaly, Greece. Almyros Basin is a coastal agricultural basin and faces the exacerbation of water deficit and groundwater nitrate pollution. Using an Integrated Modeling System (IMS), which consists of the surface hydrology model (UTHBAL), the nitrate leachate model (REPIC, an R-ArcGIS-based EPIC model), the groundwater hydrology model (MODFLOW), and the nitrates’ advection, dispersion, and transport model (MT3MDS), the projected values of the variables of water quantity and quality are simulated. Nineteen climatic models from the Med-CORDEX database were bias-corrected with the Quantile Empirical Mapping method and employed to capture the variability in the simulated surface and groundwater water balance and nitrate dynamics. The findings indicate that future precipitation, runoff, and groundwater recharge will decrease while temperature and potential evapotranspiration will increase. Climate change will lead to reduced nitrogen leaching, lower groundwater levels, and persistent nitrate pollution; however, it will be accompanied by high variability and uncertainty, as simulations of IMS under multiple climatic models indicate.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/3/465climate changeMed-CORDEXQuantile Empirical Mappinggroundwaternitrate leachingnitrate pollution |
| spellingShingle | Aikaterini Lyra Athanasios Loukas Pantelis Sidiropoulos Lampros Vasiliades Climate Change Impacts on Nitrate Leaching and Groundwater Nitrate Dynamics Using a Holistic Approach and Med-CORDEX Climatic Models Water climate change Med-CORDEX Quantile Empirical Mapping groundwater nitrate leaching nitrate pollution |
| title | Climate Change Impacts on Nitrate Leaching and Groundwater Nitrate Dynamics Using a Holistic Approach and Med-CORDEX Climatic Models |
| title_full | Climate Change Impacts on Nitrate Leaching and Groundwater Nitrate Dynamics Using a Holistic Approach and Med-CORDEX Climatic Models |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change Impacts on Nitrate Leaching and Groundwater Nitrate Dynamics Using a Holistic Approach and Med-CORDEX Climatic Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change Impacts on Nitrate Leaching and Groundwater Nitrate Dynamics Using a Holistic Approach and Med-CORDEX Climatic Models |
| title_short | Climate Change Impacts on Nitrate Leaching and Groundwater Nitrate Dynamics Using a Holistic Approach and Med-CORDEX Climatic Models |
| title_sort | climate change impacts on nitrate leaching and groundwater nitrate dynamics using a holistic approach and med cordex climatic models |
| topic | climate change Med-CORDEX Quantile Empirical Mapping groundwater nitrate leaching nitrate pollution |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/3/465 |
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