Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of Indonesia
This study aims to forecast the value of the Indonesian government foreign debt in 2020-2024. The secondary data of time series during the period of 2010-2019 on Indonesian government foreign debt are used as the basis of forecasting for the next five years by using ARIMA (Autogressive Integrated Mo...
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
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Universitas Negeri Semarang
2021-04-01
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Series: | JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan |
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Online Access: | https://journal.unnes.ac.id/nju/index.php/jejak/article/view/29715 |
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author | Yozi Aulia Rahman Amin Pujiati |
author_facet | Yozi Aulia Rahman Amin Pujiati |
author_sort | Yozi Aulia Rahman |
collection | DOAJ |
description | This study aims to forecast the value of the Indonesian government foreign debt in 2020-2024. The secondary data of time series during the period of 2010-2019 on Indonesian government foreign debt are used as the basis of forecasting for the next five years by using ARIMA (Autogressive Integrated Moving Average). The results show that the selected ARIMA models for forecasting are ARIMA (3,1,3) after the unit root test is carried out and 16 ARIMA models are tested. The value of government foreign debt is predicted to keep increasing from 2020 to 2024 amounted to USD 253.01. Then, compared to government debt in January 2010, within 11 years, government foreign debt is predicted to rise by 169.6%. |
first_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:47:51Z |
format | Article |
id | doaj.art-b0e6a47e673141ceaccfe6f980dd4b31 |
institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
issn | 2460-5123 |
language | English |
last_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:47:51Z |
publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
publisher | Universitas Negeri Semarang |
record_format | Article |
series | JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan |
spelling | doaj.art-b0e6a47e673141ceaccfe6f980dd4b312023-07-03T03:03:20ZengUniversitas Negeri SemarangJEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan2460-51232021-04-01141526010.15294/jejak.v14i1.2971510881Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of IndonesiaYozi Aulia Rahman0Amin Pujiati1Universitas Negeri SemarangUniversitas Negeri SemarangThis study aims to forecast the value of the Indonesian government foreign debt in 2020-2024. The secondary data of time series during the period of 2010-2019 on Indonesian government foreign debt are used as the basis of forecasting for the next five years by using ARIMA (Autogressive Integrated Moving Average). The results show that the selected ARIMA models for forecasting are ARIMA (3,1,3) after the unit root test is carried out and 16 ARIMA models are tested. The value of government foreign debt is predicted to keep increasing from 2020 to 2024 amounted to USD 253.01. Then, compared to government debt in January 2010, within 11 years, government foreign debt is predicted to rise by 169.6%.https://journal.unnes.ac.id/nju/index.php/jejak/article/view/29715debt ratio to gdp, foreign debt, indonesian government, arima model, unit root test |
spellingShingle | Yozi Aulia Rahman Amin Pujiati Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of Indonesia JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan debt ratio to gdp, foreign debt, indonesian government, arima model, unit root test |
title | Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of Indonesia |
title_full | Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of Indonesia |
title_fullStr | Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of Indonesia |
title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of Indonesia |
title_short | Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of Indonesia |
title_sort | dynamic forecasting of government foreign debt case of indonesia |
topic | debt ratio to gdp, foreign debt, indonesian government, arima model, unit root test |
url | https://journal.unnes.ac.id/nju/index.php/jejak/article/view/29715 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT yoziauliarahman dynamicforecastingofgovernmentforeigndebtcaseofindonesia AT aminpujiati dynamicforecastingofgovernmentforeigndebtcaseofindonesia |