Inattention in individual expectations

This paper investigates the expectations formation process of economic agents about inflation rate. Using the Market Expectations System of Central Bank of Brazil, we perceive that agents do not update their forecasts every period and that even agents who update disagree in their predictions. We the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Yara de Almeida Campos Cordeiro, Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, João Victor Issler
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Emerald Publishing 2017-01-01
Series:EconomiA
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1517758016300200
Description
Summary:This paper investigates the expectations formation process of economic agents about inflation rate. Using the Market Expectations System of Central Bank of Brazil, we perceive that agents do not update their forecasts every period and that even agents who update disagree in their predictions. We then focus on the two most popular types of inattention models that have been discussed in the recent literature: sticky-information and noisy-information models. Estimating a hybrid model we find that, although formally fitting the Brazilian data, it happens at the cost of a much higher degree of information rigidity than observed.
ISSN:1517-7580