Expected Changes to Alpine Pastures in Extent and Composition under Future Climate Conditions
As the basis of livestock feeding and related performances, pastures evolution and dynamics need to be carefully monitored and assessed, particularly in the Alps where the effects of land abandonment are further amplified by climate change. As such, increases in temperature associated with changes i...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Agronomy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/7/926 |
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| author | Camilla Dibari Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes Giovanni Argenti Marco Bindi Federico Carotenuto Marco Moriondo Gloria Padovan Andrea Pardini Nicolina Staglianò Carolina Vagnoli Lorenzo Brilli |
| author_facet | Camilla Dibari Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes Giovanni Argenti Marco Bindi Federico Carotenuto Marco Moriondo Gloria Padovan Andrea Pardini Nicolina Staglianò Carolina Vagnoli Lorenzo Brilli |
| author_sort | Camilla Dibari |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As the basis of livestock feeding and related performances, pastures evolution and dynamics need to be carefully monitored and assessed, particularly in the Alps where the effects of land abandonment are further amplified by climate change. As such, increases in temperature associated with changes in precipitation patterns and quantity are leading to modifications of grassland extent and composition with consequences on the pastoral systems. This study applied a machine learning approach (Random Forest) and GIS techniques to map the suitability of seven pasture macro types most representative of the Italian Alps and simulated the impact of climate change on their dynamics according to two future scenarios (RCP4.5, 8.5), two time-slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070), and three RCMs (Aladin, CMCC, ICTP). Results indicated that (i) the methodology was robust to map the current suitability of pasture macro types (mean accuracy classification = 98.7%), so as to predict the expected alterations due to climate change; (ii) future climate will likely reduce current extend of suitable pasture (−30% on average) and composition, especially for most niche ecosystems (i.e., pastures dominated by <i>Carex firma</i> and <i>Festuca gr. Rubra</i>); (iii) areas suited to hardier but less palatable pastures (i.e., dominated by <i>Nardus stricta</i> and xeric species) will expand over the Alps in the near future. These impacts will likely determine risks for biodiversity loss and decreases of pastoral values for livestock feeding, both pivotal aspects for maintaining the viability and profitability of the Alpine pastoral system as a whole. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:50:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b14d741dd5c14c47baefef2fb5ae9a22 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:50:38Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj.art-b14d741dd5c14c47baefef2fb5ae9a222023-11-20T05:12:29ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952020-06-0110792610.3390/agronomy10070926Expected Changes to Alpine Pastures in Extent and Composition under Future Climate ConditionsCamilla Dibari0Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes1Giovanni Argenti2Marco Bindi3Federico Carotenuto4Marco Moriondo5Gloria Padovan6Andrea Pardini7Nicolina Staglianò8Carolina Vagnoli9Lorenzo Brilli10Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyDepartment of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyDepartment of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyDepartment of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyCNR-IBE, via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Florence, ItalyCNR-IBE, via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Florence, ItalyDepartment of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyDepartment of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyDepartment of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyCNR-IBE, via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Florence, ItalyCNR-IBE, via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Florence, ItalyAs the basis of livestock feeding and related performances, pastures evolution and dynamics need to be carefully monitored and assessed, particularly in the Alps where the effects of land abandonment are further amplified by climate change. As such, increases in temperature associated with changes in precipitation patterns and quantity are leading to modifications of grassland extent and composition with consequences on the pastoral systems. This study applied a machine learning approach (Random Forest) and GIS techniques to map the suitability of seven pasture macro types most representative of the Italian Alps and simulated the impact of climate change on their dynamics according to two future scenarios (RCP4.5, 8.5), two time-slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070), and three RCMs (Aladin, CMCC, ICTP). Results indicated that (i) the methodology was robust to map the current suitability of pasture macro types (mean accuracy classification = 98.7%), so as to predict the expected alterations due to climate change; (ii) future climate will likely reduce current extend of suitable pasture (−30% on average) and composition, especially for most niche ecosystems (i.e., pastures dominated by <i>Carex firma</i> and <i>Festuca gr. Rubra</i>); (iii) areas suited to hardier but less palatable pastures (i.e., dominated by <i>Nardus stricta</i> and xeric species) will expand over the Alps in the near future. These impacts will likely determine risks for biodiversity loss and decreases of pastoral values for livestock feeding, both pivotal aspects for maintaining the viability and profitability of the Alpine pastoral system as a whole.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/7/926alpine pasturelandsclimate changegrasslands compositionRandom Forestmodeling |
| spellingShingle | Camilla Dibari Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes Giovanni Argenti Marco Bindi Federico Carotenuto Marco Moriondo Gloria Padovan Andrea Pardini Nicolina Staglianò Carolina Vagnoli Lorenzo Brilli Expected Changes to Alpine Pastures in Extent and Composition under Future Climate Conditions Agronomy alpine pasturelands climate change grasslands composition Random Forest modeling |
| title | Expected Changes to Alpine Pastures in Extent and Composition under Future Climate Conditions |
| title_full | Expected Changes to Alpine Pastures in Extent and Composition under Future Climate Conditions |
| title_fullStr | Expected Changes to Alpine Pastures in Extent and Composition under Future Climate Conditions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Expected Changes to Alpine Pastures in Extent and Composition under Future Climate Conditions |
| title_short | Expected Changes to Alpine Pastures in Extent and Composition under Future Climate Conditions |
| title_sort | expected changes to alpine pastures in extent and composition under future climate conditions |
| topic | alpine pasturelands climate change grasslands composition Random Forest modeling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/7/926 |
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