Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand
The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewher...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Aalborg University Open Publishing
2015-06-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm/article/view/1115/1047 |
| _version_ | 1827296179291947008 |
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| author | Poul Alberg Østergaard Frits Møller Andersen Pil Seok Kwon |
| author_facet | Poul Alberg Østergaard Frits Møller Andersen Pil Seok Kwon |
| author_sort | Poul Alberg Østergaard |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere.
This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model.
The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages.
The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T14:33:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b14f579e14f04266ae57ee357ce5f0f2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2246-2929 2246-2929 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T14:33:32Z |
| publishDate | 2015-06-01 |
| publisher | Aalborg University Open Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-b14f579e14f04266ae57ee357ce5f0f22024-04-03T01:53:16ZengAalborg University Open PublishingInternational Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management2246-29292246-29292015-06-0179911610.5278/ijsepm.2015.7.8 Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demandPoul Alberg ØstergaardFrits Møller AndersenPil Seok KwonThe Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.https://journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm/article/view/1115/1047Scenario modellingForecasting |
| spellingShingle | Poul Alberg Østergaard Frits Møller Andersen Pil Seok Kwon Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management Scenario modelling Forecasting |
| title | Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand |
| title_full | Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand |
| title_fullStr | Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand |
| title_full_unstemmed | Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand |
| title_short | Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand |
| title_sort | energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand |
| topic | Scenario modelling Forecasting |
| url | https://journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm/article/view/1115/1047 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT poulalbergøstergaard energysystemsscenariomodellingandlongtermforecastingofhourlyelectricitydemand AT fritsmøllerandersen energysystemsscenariomodellingandlongtermforecastingofhourlyelectricitydemand AT pilseokkwon energysystemsscenariomodellingandlongtermforecastingofhourlyelectricitydemand |