Analysis of land use and land-cover pattern to monitor dynamics of Ngorongoro world heritage site (Tanzania) using hybrid cellular automata-Markov model
Assessment of land-use and land-cover (LULC) change of any region is one of the prominent features used in environmental resource management and its overall sustainable development. This study analyzed the LULC changes of Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) and its surroundings using Remote Sensing a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Current Research in Environmental Sustainability |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666049022000044 |
| _version_ | 1811293903790276608 |
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| author | Mohamed Mwabumba Brijesh K. Yadav Mwemezi J. Rwiza Isaac Larbi Sekela Twisa |
| author_facet | Mohamed Mwabumba Brijesh K. Yadav Mwemezi J. Rwiza Isaac Larbi Sekela Twisa |
| author_sort | Mohamed Mwabumba |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Assessment of land-use and land-cover (LULC) change of any region is one of the prominent features used in environmental resource management and its overall sustainable development. This study analyzed the LULC changes of Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) and its surroundings using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System integrated with Cellular Automata-Markov model. The LULC maps for the years 1995, 2005, and 2016 were classified using unsupervised and supervised classification procedure, and projected for 2025 and 2035 under business-as-usual scenario using the CA–Markov model. The results indicated maximum gains and losses in cultivated land and woodland in the study duration, respectively. The projected LULC for the period 2025 to 2035 showed a reduction in bushland, forest, water, and woodland, but an intensification in cultivated land, grassland, bare land, and the built-up area. The natural forests with high environmental values were found to be continuously declining under the current land management trend, causing the loss in the NCA's ecological values. For sustainable management, the authorities must reach conciliation between the existing LULC patterns change and ecosystem services monitoring. A rational land use plan must be made to control the increase of cultivated land and built-up area counting a rational land use plan and ecosystem services protection guidelines. Decision makers should involve stakeholder to support improved land use management practices for balanced and sustainable ecosystem services strategies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:09:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b154143137ae43e3920fd58e14d26e7a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-0490 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:09:21Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Current Research in Environmental Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj.art-b154143137ae43e3920fd58e14d26e7a2022-12-22T03:01:05ZengElsevierCurrent Research in Environmental Sustainability2666-04902022-01-014100126Analysis of land use and land-cover pattern to monitor dynamics of Ngorongoro world heritage site (Tanzania) using hybrid cellular automata-Markov modelMohamed Mwabumba0Brijesh K. Yadav1Mwemezi J. Rwiza2Isaac Larbi3Sekela Twisa4School of Materials, Energy Water and Environmental Sciences (MEWES), The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology (NM-AIST), P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania; Corresponding author.Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247667, IndiaSchool of Materials, Energy Water and Environmental Sciences (MEWES), The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology (NM-AIST), P.O. Box 447, Arusha, TanzaniaSchool of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya, GhanaDepartment of Water Supply and Irrigation, Water Institute (WI), P.O. Box 35059, Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaAssessment of land-use and land-cover (LULC) change of any region is one of the prominent features used in environmental resource management and its overall sustainable development. This study analyzed the LULC changes of Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) and its surroundings using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System integrated with Cellular Automata-Markov model. The LULC maps for the years 1995, 2005, and 2016 were classified using unsupervised and supervised classification procedure, and projected for 2025 and 2035 under business-as-usual scenario using the CA–Markov model. The results indicated maximum gains and losses in cultivated land and woodland in the study duration, respectively. The projected LULC for the period 2025 to 2035 showed a reduction in bushland, forest, water, and woodland, but an intensification in cultivated land, grassland, bare land, and the built-up area. The natural forests with high environmental values were found to be continuously declining under the current land management trend, causing the loss in the NCA's ecological values. For sustainable management, the authorities must reach conciliation between the existing LULC patterns change and ecosystem services monitoring. A rational land use plan must be made to control the increase of cultivated land and built-up area counting a rational land use plan and ecosystem services protection guidelines. Decision makers should involve stakeholder to support improved land use management practices for balanced and sustainable ecosystem services strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666049022000044Land use/land coverNgorongoro conservation areaCA-Markov modelGIS |
| spellingShingle | Mohamed Mwabumba Brijesh K. Yadav Mwemezi J. Rwiza Isaac Larbi Sekela Twisa Analysis of land use and land-cover pattern to monitor dynamics of Ngorongoro world heritage site (Tanzania) using hybrid cellular automata-Markov model Current Research in Environmental Sustainability Land use/land cover Ngorongoro conservation area CA-Markov model GIS |
| title | Analysis of land use and land-cover pattern to monitor dynamics of Ngorongoro world heritage site (Tanzania) using hybrid cellular automata-Markov model |
| title_full | Analysis of land use and land-cover pattern to monitor dynamics of Ngorongoro world heritage site (Tanzania) using hybrid cellular automata-Markov model |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of land use and land-cover pattern to monitor dynamics of Ngorongoro world heritage site (Tanzania) using hybrid cellular automata-Markov model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of land use and land-cover pattern to monitor dynamics of Ngorongoro world heritage site (Tanzania) using hybrid cellular automata-Markov model |
| title_short | Analysis of land use and land-cover pattern to monitor dynamics of Ngorongoro world heritage site (Tanzania) using hybrid cellular automata-Markov model |
| title_sort | analysis of land use and land cover pattern to monitor dynamics of ngorongoro world heritage site tanzania using hybrid cellular automata markov model |
| topic | Land use/land cover Ngorongoro conservation area CA-Markov model GIS |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666049022000044 |
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