Quantifying the effects of anomalies of temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage on diarrhea risk in Taiwan
OBJECTIVES Diarrheal disease continues to be a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. We investigated how anomalies in monthly average temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage (SWS) impacted bacterial, and viral diarrhea morbidity in Taiwan between 2004 and 2015. METHODS A multiv...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Korean Society of Epidemiology
2023-02-01
|
| Series: | Epidemiology and Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.e-epih.org/upload/epih-45-e2023024.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797305314666610688 |
|---|---|
| author | Gerry Andhikaputra Ayushi Sharma Amir Sapkota Hao He Yu-Kai Lin Li-Wen Deng Yu-Chun Wang |
| author_facet | Gerry Andhikaputra Ayushi Sharma Amir Sapkota Hao He Yu-Kai Lin Li-Wen Deng Yu-Chun Wang |
| author_sort | Gerry Andhikaputra |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | OBJECTIVES Diarrheal disease continues to be a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. We investigated how anomalies in monthly average temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage (SWS) impacted bacterial, and viral diarrhea morbidity in Taiwan between 2004 and 2015. METHODS A multivariate analysis using negative binomial generalized estimating equations was employed to quantify age-specific and cause-specific cases of diarrhea associated with anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and SWS. RESULTS Temperature anomalies were associated with an elevated rate of all-cause infectious diarrhea at a lag of 2 months, with the highest risk observed in the under-5 age group (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.07). Anomalies in SWS were associated with increased viral diarrhea rates, with the highest risk observed in the under-5 age group at a 2-month lag (IRR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.42) and a lesser effect at a 1-month lag (IRR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.31). Furthermore, cause-specific diarrheal diseases were significantly affected by extreme weather events in Taiwan. Both extremely cold and hot conditions were associated with an increased risk of all-cause infectious diarrhea regardless of age, with IRRs ranging from 1.03 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.12) to 1.18 (95% CI, 1.16 to 1.40). CONCLUSIONS The risk of all-cause infectious diarrhea was significantly associated with average temperature anomalies in the population aged under 5 years. Viral diarrhea was significantly associated with anomalies in SWS. Therefore, we recommend strategic planning and early warning systems as major solutions to improve resilience against climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T00:25:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b15c14d5ced84537a9e63ba7eaa95a7f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2092-7193 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T00:25:08Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | Korean Society of Epidemiology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemiology and Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-b15c14d5ced84537a9e63ba7eaa95a7f2024-02-16T01:04:24ZengKorean Society of EpidemiologyEpidemiology and Health2092-71932023-02-014510.4178/epih.e20230241386Quantifying the effects of anomalies of temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage on diarrhea risk in TaiwanGerry Andhikaputra0Ayushi Sharma1Amir Sapkota2Hao He3Yu-Kai Lin4Li-Wen Deng5Yu-Chun Wang6 Department of Environmental Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University College of Engineering, Zhongli, Taiwan Department of Environmental Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University College of Engineering, Zhongli, Taiwan Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Maryland School of Public Health, College Park, MD, USA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA Department of Health and Welfare, University of Taipei College of City Management, Taipei, Taiwan Department of Environmental Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University College of Engineering, Zhongli, Taiwan Department of Environmental Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University College of Engineering, Zhongli, TaiwanOBJECTIVES Diarrheal disease continues to be a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. We investigated how anomalies in monthly average temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage (SWS) impacted bacterial, and viral diarrhea morbidity in Taiwan between 2004 and 2015. METHODS A multivariate analysis using negative binomial generalized estimating equations was employed to quantify age-specific and cause-specific cases of diarrhea associated with anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and SWS. RESULTS Temperature anomalies were associated with an elevated rate of all-cause infectious diarrhea at a lag of 2 months, with the highest risk observed in the under-5 age group (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.07). Anomalies in SWS were associated with increased viral diarrhea rates, with the highest risk observed in the under-5 age group at a 2-month lag (IRR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.42) and a lesser effect at a 1-month lag (IRR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.31). Furthermore, cause-specific diarrheal diseases were significantly affected by extreme weather events in Taiwan. Both extremely cold and hot conditions were associated with an increased risk of all-cause infectious diarrhea regardless of age, with IRRs ranging from 1.03 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.12) to 1.18 (95% CI, 1.16 to 1.40). CONCLUSIONS The risk of all-cause infectious diarrhea was significantly associated with average temperature anomalies in the population aged under 5 years. Viral diarrhea was significantly associated with anomalies in SWS. Therefore, we recommend strategic planning and early warning systems as major solutions to improve resilience against climate change.http://www.e-epih.org/upload/epih-45-e2023024.pdfdiarrheaweather anomalyextreme weatherclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Gerry Andhikaputra Ayushi Sharma Amir Sapkota Hao He Yu-Kai Lin Li-Wen Deng Yu-Chun Wang Quantifying the effects of anomalies of temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage on diarrhea risk in Taiwan Epidemiology and Health diarrhea weather anomaly extreme weather climate change |
| title | Quantifying the effects of anomalies of temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage on diarrhea risk in Taiwan |
| title_full | Quantifying the effects of anomalies of temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage on diarrhea risk in Taiwan |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the effects of anomalies of temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage on diarrhea risk in Taiwan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the effects of anomalies of temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage on diarrhea risk in Taiwan |
| title_short | Quantifying the effects of anomalies of temperature, precipitation, and surface water storage on diarrhea risk in Taiwan |
| title_sort | quantifying the effects of anomalies of temperature precipitation and surface water storage on diarrhea risk in taiwan |
| topic | diarrhea weather anomaly extreme weather climate change |
| url | http://www.e-epih.org/upload/epih-45-e2023024.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gerryandhikaputra quantifyingtheeffectsofanomaliesoftemperatureprecipitationandsurfacewaterstorageondiarrheariskintaiwan AT ayushisharma quantifyingtheeffectsofanomaliesoftemperatureprecipitationandsurfacewaterstorageondiarrheariskintaiwan AT amirsapkota quantifyingtheeffectsofanomaliesoftemperatureprecipitationandsurfacewaterstorageondiarrheariskintaiwan AT haohe quantifyingtheeffectsofanomaliesoftemperatureprecipitationandsurfacewaterstorageondiarrheariskintaiwan AT yukailin quantifyingtheeffectsofanomaliesoftemperatureprecipitationandsurfacewaterstorageondiarrheariskintaiwan AT liwendeng quantifyingtheeffectsofanomaliesoftemperatureprecipitationandsurfacewaterstorageondiarrheariskintaiwan AT yuchunwang quantifyingtheeffectsofanomaliesoftemperatureprecipitationandsurfacewaterstorageondiarrheariskintaiwan |