Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts
Abstract This study explores the relationships between recent Iranian lizard species distributions and the observed climate, as well as potential future distributions of species. For this purpose, an ensemble of seven algorithms was used to forecast the distributions of 30 species for the recent and...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06330-4 |
| _version_ | 1818332011188715520 |
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| author | Somaye Vaissi |
| author_facet | Somaye Vaissi |
| author_sort | Somaye Vaissi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study explores the relationships between recent Iranian lizard species distributions and the observed climate, as well as potential future distributions of species. For this purpose, an ensemble of seven algorithms was used to forecast the distributions of 30 species for the recent and future (2070) based on the averages of 14 global climate models under optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual precipitation (n = 16) and annual mean temperature (n = 7) were identified as the most important variables in determining the distribution of 76.66% (23 out of 30) of the species. The consensus model predicts that the ranges of 83.33% of species (n = 25) have the potential to expand poleward at higher latitudes while preserving the majority of their recent distributions (except for four species). Furthermore, the ranges of the remaining species (n = 5) will be preserved at higher latitudes. However, they (n = 22) may contract slightly (n = 13) or excessively (n = 9) in the south of their distribution range at lower latitudes. These results indicate that species (N = 19) situated in mountainous areas such as the Zagros, Alborz, and Kopet Dagh may move or maintain their range at higher elevations as a result of future climate change. Finally, this study suggests that 30% of species (n = 9) may be threatened by future climate change and that they should be prioritized in conservation efforts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T13:28:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b15f99d085e04e30ae5f5955226e5723 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T13:28:57Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-b15f99d085e04e30ae5f5955226e57232022-12-21T23:44:13ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-02-0112112110.1038/s41598-022-06330-4Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shiftsSomaye Vaissi0Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Razi UniversityAbstract This study explores the relationships between recent Iranian lizard species distributions and the observed climate, as well as potential future distributions of species. For this purpose, an ensemble of seven algorithms was used to forecast the distributions of 30 species for the recent and future (2070) based on the averages of 14 global climate models under optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual precipitation (n = 16) and annual mean temperature (n = 7) were identified as the most important variables in determining the distribution of 76.66% (23 out of 30) of the species. The consensus model predicts that the ranges of 83.33% of species (n = 25) have the potential to expand poleward at higher latitudes while preserving the majority of their recent distributions (except for four species). Furthermore, the ranges of the remaining species (n = 5) will be preserved at higher latitudes. However, they (n = 22) may contract slightly (n = 13) or excessively (n = 9) in the south of their distribution range at lower latitudes. These results indicate that species (N = 19) situated in mountainous areas such as the Zagros, Alborz, and Kopet Dagh may move or maintain their range at higher elevations as a result of future climate change. Finally, this study suggests that 30% of species (n = 9) may be threatened by future climate change and that they should be prioritized in conservation efforts.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06330-4 |
| spellingShingle | Somaye Vaissi Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts Scientific Reports |
| title | Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts |
| title_full | Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts |
| title_fullStr | Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts |
| title_short | Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts |
| title_sort | response of iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion southern contraction and elevation shifts |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06330-4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT somayevaissi responseofiranianlizardstofutureclimatechangebypolewardexpansionsoutherncontractionandelevationshifts |