Application of the FAPPS system based on the CALPUFF model in short-term air pollution forecasting in Krakow and Lesser Poland
The aim of the study is to present the FAPPS (Forecasting of Air Pollution Propagation System) based on the CALPUFF puff dispersion model, used for short-term air quality forecasting in Krakow and Lesser Poland. The article presents two methods of operational air quality forecasting in Krakow. The q...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Polish Academy of Sciences
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Archives of Environmental Protection |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.pan.pl/Content/124081/PDF/Archives%20vol%2048_3pp109_117.pdf |
| _version_ | 1827630748562096128 |
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| author | Jolanta Godłowska Kamil Kaszowski Wiesław Kaszowski |
| author_facet | Jolanta Godłowska Kamil Kaszowski Wiesław Kaszowski |
| author_sort | Jolanta Godłowska |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The aim of the study is to present the FAPPS (Forecasting of Air Pollution Propagation System) based on the CALPUFF puff dispersion model, used for short-term air quality forecasting in Krakow and Lesser Poland. The article presents two methods of operational air quality forecasting in Krakow. The quality of forecasts was assessed on the basis of PM10 concentrations measured at eight air quality monitoring stations in 2019 in Krakow. Apart from the standard quantitative forecast, a qualitative forecast was presented, specifying the percentage shares of the city area with PM10 concentrations in six concentration classes. For both methods, it was shown how the adjustment of the emissions in the FAPPS system to changes in emissions related to the systemic elimination of coal furnaces in Krakow influenced the quality of forecasts. For standard forecasts, after the emission change on June 7, 2019, the average RMSE value decreased from 23.9 μg/m3 to 14.9 μg/m3, the average FB value changed from -0.200 to -0.063, and the share of correct forecasts increased from 0.74 to 0.91. For qualitative forecasts, for the entire year 2019 and separately for the periods from January to March and October to December, Hit Rate values of 5.43, 2.18 and 3.48 were obtained, the False Alarm Ratios were 0.28, 0.24 and 0,26, and the Probability of Detection values were 0.66, 0.75, and 0.74. The presented results show that the FAPPS system is a useful tool for modelling air pollution in urbanized and industrialized areas with complex terrain |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:11:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b16179d6bbac49fa9b4d73790bf90ca1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2083-4772 2083-4810 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:11:07Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Polish Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Archives of Environmental Protection |
| spelling | doaj.art-b16179d6bbac49fa9b4d73790bf90ca12023-11-29T10:41:51ZengPolish Academy of SciencesArchives of Environmental Protection2083-47722083-48102022-09-01483109117https://doi.org/10.24425/aep.2022.142695Application of the FAPPS system based on the CALPUFF model in short-term air pollution forecasting in Krakow and Lesser PolandJolanta Godłowska0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7892-9376Kamil Kaszowski1Wiesław Kaszowski2Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute, PolandInstitute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute, PolandInstitute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute, PolandThe aim of the study is to present the FAPPS (Forecasting of Air Pollution Propagation System) based on the CALPUFF puff dispersion model, used for short-term air quality forecasting in Krakow and Lesser Poland. The article presents two methods of operational air quality forecasting in Krakow. The quality of forecasts was assessed on the basis of PM10 concentrations measured at eight air quality monitoring stations in 2019 in Krakow. Apart from the standard quantitative forecast, a qualitative forecast was presented, specifying the percentage shares of the city area with PM10 concentrations in six concentration classes. For both methods, it was shown how the adjustment of the emissions in the FAPPS system to changes in emissions related to the systemic elimination of coal furnaces in Krakow influenced the quality of forecasts. For standard forecasts, after the emission change on June 7, 2019, the average RMSE value decreased from 23.9 μg/m3 to 14.9 μg/m3, the average FB value changed from -0.200 to -0.063, and the share of correct forecasts increased from 0.74 to 0.91. For qualitative forecasts, for the entire year 2019 and separately for the periods from January to March and October to December, Hit Rate values of 5.43, 2.18 and 3.48 were obtained, the False Alarm Ratios were 0.28, 0.24 and 0,26, and the Probability of Detection values were 0.66, 0.75, and 0.74. The presented results show that the FAPPS system is a useful tool for modelling air pollution in urbanized and industrialized areas with complex terrainhttps://journals.pan.pl/Content/124081/PDF/Archives%20vol%2048_3pp109_117.pdfcalpuffair pollution modellingurban air pollutionfapps system |
| spellingShingle | Jolanta Godłowska Kamil Kaszowski Wiesław Kaszowski Application of the FAPPS system based on the CALPUFF model in short-term air pollution forecasting in Krakow and Lesser Poland Archives of Environmental Protection calpuff air pollution modelling urban air pollution fapps system |
| title | Application of the FAPPS system based on the CALPUFF model in short-term air pollution forecasting in Krakow and Lesser Poland |
| title_full | Application of the FAPPS system based on the CALPUFF model in short-term air pollution forecasting in Krakow and Lesser Poland |
| title_fullStr | Application of the FAPPS system based on the CALPUFF model in short-term air pollution forecasting in Krakow and Lesser Poland |
| title_full_unstemmed | Application of the FAPPS system based on the CALPUFF model in short-term air pollution forecasting in Krakow and Lesser Poland |
| title_short | Application of the FAPPS system based on the CALPUFF model in short-term air pollution forecasting in Krakow and Lesser Poland |
| title_sort | application of the fapps system based on the calpuff model in short term air pollution forecasting in krakow and lesser poland |
| topic | calpuff air pollution modelling urban air pollution fapps system |
| url | https://journals.pan.pl/Content/124081/PDF/Archives%20vol%2048_3pp109_117.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jolantagodłowska applicationofthefappssystembasedonthecalpuffmodelinshorttermairpollutionforecastinginkrakowandlesserpoland AT kamilkaszowski applicationofthefappssystembasedonthecalpuffmodelinshorttermairpollutionforecastinginkrakowandlesserpoland AT wiesławkaszowski applicationofthefappssystembasedonthecalpuffmodelinshorttermairpollutionforecastinginkrakowandlesserpoland |