| Summary: | Estimation of maximum wind speed associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) is crucial to evaluate potential wind destruction. The Holland B parameter is the key parameter of TC parametric wind field models. It plays an essential role in describing the radial distribution characteristics of a TC wind field and has been widely used in TC disaster risk evaluation. In this study, a backpropagation neural network (BPNN) is developed to estimate the Holland B parameter (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>B</mi><mi>s</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) in TC surface wind field model. The inputs of the BPNN include different combinations of TC minimum center pressure difference (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mo>Δ</mo><mi>p</mi></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>), latitude, radius of maximum wind speed, translation speed and intensity change rate from the best-track data of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). We find that the BPNN exhibits the best performance when only inputting TC central pressure difference. The <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>B</mi><mi>s</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> estimated from BPNN are compared with those calculated from previous statistical models. Results indicate that the proposed BPNN can describe well the nonlinear relation between <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>B</mi><mi>s</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mo>Δ</mo><mi>p</mi></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>. It is also found that the combination of BPNN and Holland’s wind pressure model can significantly improve the maximum wind speed underestimation and overestimation of the two existing wind pressure models (AH77 and KZ07) for super typhoons.
|
|---|