An efficient probabilistic workflow for estimating induced earthquake parameters in 3D heterogeneous media
<p>We present an efficient probabilistic workflow for the estimation of source parameters of induced seismic events in three-dimensional heterogeneous media. Our workflow exploits a linearized variant of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. Compared to traditional Markov chain Monte Ca...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Solid Earth |
| Online Access: | https://se.copernicus.org/articles/13/1309/2022/se-13-1309-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811339388409348096 |
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| author | L. O. M. Masfara T. Cullison C. Weemstra C. Weemstra |
| author_facet | L. O. M. Masfara T. Cullison C. Weemstra C. Weemstra |
| author_sort | L. O. M. Masfara |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>We present an efficient probabilistic workflow for the estimation of source parameters of induced seismic events in three-dimensional heterogeneous
media. Our workflow exploits a linearized variant of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. Compared to traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo
(MCMC) algorithms, HMC is highly efficient in sampling high-dimensional model spaces. Through a linearization of the forward problem around the
prior mean (i.e., the “best” initial model), this efficiency can be further improved. We show, however, that this linearization leads to a
performance in which the output of an HMC chain strongly depends on the quality of the prior, in particular because not all (induced) earthquake
model parameters have a linear relationship with the recordings observed at the surface. To mitigate the importance of an accurate prior, we
integrate the linearized HMC scheme into a workflow that (i) allows for a weak prior through linearization around various (initial) centroid
locations, (ii) is able to converge to the mode containing the model with the (global) minimum misfit by means of an iterative HMC approach, and
(iii) uses variance reduction as a criterion to include the output of individual Markov chains in the estimation of the posterior probability. Using
a three-dimensional heterogeneous subsurface model of the Groningen gas field, we simulate an induced earthquake to test our workflow. We then
demonstrate the virtue of our workflow by estimating the event's centroid (three parameters), moment tensor (six parameters), and the earthquake's origin
time. Using the synthetic case, we find that our proposed workflow is able to recover the posterior probability of these source parameters rather
well, even when the prior model information is inaccurate, imprecise, or both inaccurate and imprecise.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T18:26:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b1917e982d8d4500aad67847c56310d5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1869-9510 1869-9529 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T18:26:03Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Solid Earth |
| spelling | doaj.art-b1917e982d8d4500aad67847c56310d52022-12-22T02:35:15ZengCopernicus PublicationsSolid Earth1869-95101869-95292022-08-01131309132510.5194/se-13-1309-2022An efficient probabilistic workflow for estimating induced earthquake parameters in 3D heterogeneous mediaL. O. M. Masfara0T. Cullison1C. Weemstra2C. Weemstra3Department of Geoscience and Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, the NetherlandsDepartment of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 8, 3584 CS Utrecht, the NetherlandsDepartment of Geoscience and Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, the NetherlandsDepartment of Seismology and Acoustics, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Utrechtseweg 297, 3730 AE, De Bilt, the Netherlands<p>We present an efficient probabilistic workflow for the estimation of source parameters of induced seismic events in three-dimensional heterogeneous media. Our workflow exploits a linearized variant of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. Compared to traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, HMC is highly efficient in sampling high-dimensional model spaces. Through a linearization of the forward problem around the prior mean (i.e., the “best” initial model), this efficiency can be further improved. We show, however, that this linearization leads to a performance in which the output of an HMC chain strongly depends on the quality of the prior, in particular because not all (induced) earthquake model parameters have a linear relationship with the recordings observed at the surface. To mitigate the importance of an accurate prior, we integrate the linearized HMC scheme into a workflow that (i) allows for a weak prior through linearization around various (initial) centroid locations, (ii) is able to converge to the mode containing the model with the (global) minimum misfit by means of an iterative HMC approach, and (iii) uses variance reduction as a criterion to include the output of individual Markov chains in the estimation of the posterior probability. Using a three-dimensional heterogeneous subsurface model of the Groningen gas field, we simulate an induced earthquake to test our workflow. We then demonstrate the virtue of our workflow by estimating the event's centroid (three parameters), moment tensor (six parameters), and the earthquake's origin time. Using the synthetic case, we find that our proposed workflow is able to recover the posterior probability of these source parameters rather well, even when the prior model information is inaccurate, imprecise, or both inaccurate and imprecise.</p>https://se.copernicus.org/articles/13/1309/2022/se-13-1309-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | L. O. M. Masfara T. Cullison C. Weemstra C. Weemstra An efficient probabilistic workflow for estimating induced earthquake parameters in 3D heterogeneous media Solid Earth |
| title | An efficient probabilistic workflow for estimating induced earthquake parameters in 3D heterogeneous media |
| title_full | An efficient probabilistic workflow for estimating induced earthquake parameters in 3D heterogeneous media |
| title_fullStr | An efficient probabilistic workflow for estimating induced earthquake parameters in 3D heterogeneous media |
| title_full_unstemmed | An efficient probabilistic workflow for estimating induced earthquake parameters in 3D heterogeneous media |
| title_short | An efficient probabilistic workflow for estimating induced earthquake parameters in 3D heterogeneous media |
| title_sort | efficient probabilistic workflow for estimating induced earthquake parameters in 3d heterogeneous media |
| url | https://se.copernicus.org/articles/13/1309/2022/se-13-1309-2022.pdf |
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