Disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning, statistical and process crop models
Temperature impacts on crop yield are known to be dependent on concurrent precipitation conditions and vice versa. To date, their confounding effects, as well as the associated uncertainties, are not well quantified at the global scale. Here, we disentangle the separate and confounding effects of te...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5716 |
| _version_ | 1797747096195956736 |
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| author | Xiaomeng Yin Guoyong Leng Linfei Yu |
| author_facet | Xiaomeng Yin Guoyong Leng Linfei Yu |
| author_sort | Xiaomeng Yin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Temperature impacts on crop yield are known to be dependent on concurrent precipitation conditions and vice versa. To date, their confounding effects, as well as the associated uncertainties, are not well quantified at the global scale. Here, we disentangle the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield under 25 climate scenarios. Instead of relying on a single type of crop model, as pursued in most previous impact assessments, we utilize machine learning, statistical and process-based crop models in a novel approach that allows for reasonable inter-method comparisons and uncertainty quantifications. Through controlling precipitation, an increase in warming of 1 °C could cause a global yield loss of 6.88%, 4.86% or 5.61% according to polynomial regression, long short-term memory (LSTM) and process-based crop models, respectively. With a 10% increase in precipitation, such negative temperature effects could be mitigated by 3.98%, 1.05% or 3.10%, respectively. When temperature is fixed at the baseline level, a 10% increase in precipitation alone could lead to a global yield growth of 0.23%, 1.43% or 3.09% according to polynomial regression, LSTM and process-based crop models, respectively. Further analysis demonstrates substantial uncertainties in impact assessment across crop models, which show a larger discrepancy in predicting temperature impacts than precipitation effects. Overall, global-scale assessment is more uncertain under drier conditions than under wet conditions, while a diverse uncertainty pattern is found for the top ten maize producing countries. This study highlights the important role of climate interactions in regulating yield response to changes in a specific climate factor and emphasizes the value of using both machine learning, statistical and process crop models in a consistent manner for a more realistic estimate of uncertainty than would be provided by a single type of model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:46:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b1a15b487d724490aa62eee79018c6d6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:46:18Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-b1a15b487d724490aa62eee79018c6d62023-08-09T15:26:13ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117404403610.1088/1748-9326/ac5716Disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning, statistical and process crop modelsXiaomeng Yin0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3990-1124Guoyong Leng1Linfei Yu2Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of ChinaTemperature impacts on crop yield are known to be dependent on concurrent precipitation conditions and vice versa. To date, their confounding effects, as well as the associated uncertainties, are not well quantified at the global scale. Here, we disentangle the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield under 25 climate scenarios. Instead of relying on a single type of crop model, as pursued in most previous impact assessments, we utilize machine learning, statistical and process-based crop models in a novel approach that allows for reasonable inter-method comparisons and uncertainty quantifications. Through controlling precipitation, an increase in warming of 1 °C could cause a global yield loss of 6.88%, 4.86% or 5.61% according to polynomial regression, long short-term memory (LSTM) and process-based crop models, respectively. With a 10% increase in precipitation, such negative temperature effects could be mitigated by 3.98%, 1.05% or 3.10%, respectively. When temperature is fixed at the baseline level, a 10% increase in precipitation alone could lead to a global yield growth of 0.23%, 1.43% or 3.09% according to polynomial regression, LSTM and process-based crop models, respectively. Further analysis demonstrates substantial uncertainties in impact assessment across crop models, which show a larger discrepancy in predicting temperature impacts than precipitation effects. Overall, global-scale assessment is more uncertain under drier conditions than under wet conditions, while a diverse uncertainty pattern is found for the top ten maize producing countries. This study highlights the important role of climate interactions in regulating yield response to changes in a specific climate factor and emphasizes the value of using both machine learning, statistical and process crop models in a consistent manner for a more realistic estimate of uncertainty than would be provided by a single type of model.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5716inter-modeltemperatureprecipitationglobal maize yield |
| spellingShingle | Xiaomeng Yin Guoyong Leng Linfei Yu Disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning, statistical and process crop models Environmental Research Letters inter-model temperature precipitation global maize yield |
| title | Disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning, statistical and process crop models |
| title_full | Disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning, statistical and process crop models |
| title_fullStr | Disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning, statistical and process crop models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning, statistical and process crop models |
| title_short | Disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning, statistical and process crop models |
| title_sort | disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning statistical and process crop models |
| topic | inter-model temperature precipitation global maize yield |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5716 |
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