Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are predicted to decline sharply throughout the 21st century, in line with climate change and air quality mitigation policies, causing a near-term warming of climate that will impact our trajectory towards 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. However, the persist...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba20c |
| _version_ | 1797747883372445696 |
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| author | A H Peace K S Carslaw L A Lee L A Regayre B B B Booth J S Johnson D Bernie |
| author_facet | A H Peace K S Carslaw L A Lee L A Regayre B B B Booth J S Johnson D Bernie |
| author_sort | A H Peace |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are predicted to decline sharply throughout the 21st century, in line with climate change and air quality mitigation policies, causing a near-term warming of climate that will impact our trajectory towards 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. However, the persistent uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing limits our understanding of how much the global mean temperature will respond to near-term reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. We quantify the model and scenario uncertainty in global mean aerosol radiative forcing up to 2050 using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble for emission reduction scenarios consistent with three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We then use a simple climate model to translate the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing into uncertainty in global mean temperature projections, accounting additionally for the potential correlation of aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Near-term aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty alone causes an uncertainty window of around 5 years (2034–2039) on the projected year of exceeding a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures for a middle of the road emissions scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5). A correlation between aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity would increase the 1.5 °C exceedance window by many years. The results highlight the importance of quantifying aerosol radiative forcing and any relationship with climate sensitivity in climate models in order to reduce uncertainty in temperature projections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:56:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b20f6ac48d9249948c22776010a30b0e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:56:59Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-b20f6ac48d9249948c22776010a30b0e2023-08-09T14:52:59ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-011590940a610.1088/1748-9326/aba20cEffect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature riseA H Peace0K S Carslaw1L A Lee2L A Regayre3B B B Booth4J S Johnson5D Bernie6Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds , Leeds, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds , Leeds, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds , Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Engineering and Mathematics, Sheffield Hallam University , Sheffield, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds , Leeds, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , Exeter, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds , Leeds, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , Exeter, United KingdomAnthropogenic aerosol emissions are predicted to decline sharply throughout the 21st century, in line with climate change and air quality mitigation policies, causing a near-term warming of climate that will impact our trajectory towards 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. However, the persistent uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing limits our understanding of how much the global mean temperature will respond to near-term reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. We quantify the model and scenario uncertainty in global mean aerosol radiative forcing up to 2050 using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble for emission reduction scenarios consistent with three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We then use a simple climate model to translate the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing into uncertainty in global mean temperature projections, accounting additionally for the potential correlation of aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Near-term aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty alone causes an uncertainty window of around 5 years (2034–2039) on the projected year of exceeding a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures for a middle of the road emissions scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5). A correlation between aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity would increase the 1.5 °C exceedance window by many years. The results highlight the importance of quantifying aerosol radiative forcing and any relationship with climate sensitivity in climate models in order to reduce uncertainty in temperature projections.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba20caerosolsclimateuncertaintyradiativeforcing |
| spellingShingle | A H Peace K S Carslaw L A Lee L A Regayre B B B Booth J S Johnson D Bernie Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise Environmental Research Letters aerosols climate uncertainty radiative forcing |
| title | Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise |
| title_full | Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise |
| title_fullStr | Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise |
| title_short | Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise |
| title_sort | effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1 5 °c global temperature rise |
| topic | aerosols climate uncertainty radiative forcing |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba20c |
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