Determinants of Indonesian stock market development: Implementation of an ARDL bound testing approach
The Indonesian stock market is a growing financial industry that plays a strategic role in the growth of the country’s economy. Its development is affected by various factors. This study examined the impact of the exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, inflation, foreign portfo...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
LLC "CPC "Business Perspectives"
2023-10-01
|
| Series: | Investment Management & Financial Innovations |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/18976/IMFI_2023_04_Siska.pdf |
| _version_ | 1826904040420671488 |
|---|---|
| author | Elmira Siska Oyyappan Duraipandi Purwanto Widodo |
| author_facet | Elmira Siska Oyyappan Duraipandi Purwanto Widodo |
| author_sort | Elmira Siska |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Indonesian stock market is a growing financial industry that plays a strategic role in the growth of the country’s economy. Its development is affected by various factors. This study examined the impact of the exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, inflation, foreign portfolio investment (FPI), and domestic political stability on stock market capitalization. Quarterly data between 2000:Q1 and 2020:Q4 are used. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is applied to identify long-run relationships between variables. To understand how fast the system reaches equilibrium after a shock, the model also examines short-run relationships using an error correction model (ECM). The findings show that the impact of exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation on stock market capitalization is negative in the long run. While the GDP, FPI, and political stability are positive. Increment in the US Dollar against the Indonesian Rupiah, interest rate, and inflation by 1% respectively, caused stock market capitalization to fall by 1.31%, 0.06%, and 0.04%. A rise in GDP, FPI, and political stability by 1% respectively, increases the stock market’s value by 1.17%, 1.08%, and 1.28%. In the short run, the coefficient of ECM indicates the speed of adjustment of the system: the occurrence of the shock to reach long-run equilibrium is quick enough, at 63.8% each quarter. The study recommends governments evaluate the impact of these factors when formulating monetary policies, promote economic growth, and continuously implement good governance, thus supporting stock market development. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:29:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b225813bcee74dd3ac087f805c91d6a7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1810-4967 1812-9358 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-17T08:04:53Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | LLC "CPC "Business Perspectives" |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Investment Management & Financial Innovations |
| spelling | doaj.art-b225813bcee74dd3ac087f805c91d6a72025-01-03T00:20:40ZengLLC "CPC "Business Perspectives"Investment Management & Financial Innovations1810-49671812-93582023-10-01204698210.21511/imfi.20(4).2023.0718976Determinants of Indonesian stock market development: Implementation of an ARDL bound testing approachElmira Siska0https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8820-2831Oyyappan Duraipandi1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6076-0720Purwanto Widodo2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9284-159XPh.D. Candidate, Faculty of Business and Accountancy, Management Department, Lincoln University CollegeSenior Lecturer, Faculty of Business and Accountancy, Management Department, Lincoln University CollegeSenior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, Management Department, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran JakartaThe Indonesian stock market is a growing financial industry that plays a strategic role in the growth of the country’s economy. Its development is affected by various factors. This study examined the impact of the exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, inflation, foreign portfolio investment (FPI), and domestic political stability on stock market capitalization. Quarterly data between 2000:Q1 and 2020:Q4 are used. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is applied to identify long-run relationships between variables. To understand how fast the system reaches equilibrium after a shock, the model also examines short-run relationships using an error correction model (ECM). The findings show that the impact of exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation on stock market capitalization is negative in the long run. While the GDP, FPI, and political stability are positive. Increment in the US Dollar against the Indonesian Rupiah, interest rate, and inflation by 1% respectively, caused stock market capitalization to fall by 1.31%, 0.06%, and 0.04%. A rise in GDP, FPI, and political stability by 1% respectively, increases the stock market’s value by 1.17%, 1.08%, and 1.28%. In the short run, the coefficient of ECM indicates the speed of adjustment of the system: the occurrence of the shock to reach long-run equilibrium is quick enough, at 63.8% each quarter. The study recommends governments evaluate the impact of these factors when formulating monetary policies, promote economic growth, and continuously implement good governance, thus supporting stock market development.https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/18976/IMFI_2023_04_Siska.pdfexchange rateforeign portfolio investmentgross domestic productinflationpolitical stabilitystock market capitalization |
| spellingShingle | Elmira Siska Oyyappan Duraipandi Purwanto Widodo Determinants of Indonesian stock market development: Implementation of an ARDL bound testing approach Investment Management & Financial Innovations exchange rate foreign portfolio investment gross domestic product inflation political stability stock market capitalization |
| title | Determinants of Indonesian stock market development: Implementation of an ARDL bound testing approach |
| title_full | Determinants of Indonesian stock market development: Implementation of an ARDL bound testing approach |
| title_fullStr | Determinants of Indonesian stock market development: Implementation of an ARDL bound testing approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Determinants of Indonesian stock market development: Implementation of an ARDL bound testing approach |
| title_short | Determinants of Indonesian stock market development: Implementation of an ARDL bound testing approach |
| title_sort | determinants of indonesian stock market development implementation of an ardl bound testing approach |
| topic | exchange rate foreign portfolio investment gross domestic product inflation political stability stock market capitalization |
| url | https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/18976/IMFI_2023_04_Siska.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT elmirasiska determinantsofindonesianstockmarketdevelopmentimplementationofanardlboundtestingapproach AT oyyappanduraipandi determinantsofindonesianstockmarketdevelopmentimplementationofanardlboundtestingapproach AT purwantowidodo determinantsofindonesianstockmarketdevelopmentimplementationofanardlboundtestingapproach |