Can the Business Tendency Survey Predict the Economic Indicators in Czechia?
In uncertain times, it is crucial to have some statistics, which can help with the prediction of future development in the national economy. Business Tendency Survey is one of the most essential and favourite tools for predictions in economic statistics. The article aims to determine which confidenc...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Czech Statistical Office
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.czso.cz/documents/10180/125507865/32019720q3_ptackova_analyses.pdf/18a97bb7-6764-4e36-a874-00d35909adc8?version=1.1 |
| _version_ | 1818496014514913280 |
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| author | Veronika Ptáčková Jakub Fischer |
| author_facet | Veronika Ptáčková Jakub Fischer |
| author_sort | Veronika Ptáčková |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In uncertain times, it is crucial to have some statistics, which can help with the prediction of future development in the national economy. Business Tendency Survey is one of the most essential and favourite tools for predictions in economic statistics. The article aims to determine which confidence indicators help predict the Czech economic development and which base of the confidence indicators is the best for making predictions. Using the Granger causality test, we prove the Business Tendency Survey indicators are beneficial for predictions. The economic sentiment indicator and the confidence indicator for industry predict the gross value added better than the gross domestic product. The long-term average is a slightly better base than the base indices. The predictions are most accurate in the horizon of two quarters. Individual composite indicator for the industry well predicts both the industrial production index (for the next month) and the gross value added in the industry (for the next quarter). |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T18:27:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b2d6a08713c443da9b6e3564c76917ba |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0322-788X 1804-8765 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T18:27:53Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Czech Statistical Office |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-b2d6a08713c443da9b6e3564c76917ba2022-12-22T01:38:01ZengCzech Statistical OfficeStatistika: Statistics and Economy Journal0322-788X1804-87652020-09-011003256264Can the Business Tendency Survey Predict the Economic Indicators in Czechia?Veronika Ptáčková0Jakub Fischer1University of Economics, Prague, Czech RepublicUniversity of Economics, Prague, Czech RepublicIn uncertain times, it is crucial to have some statistics, which can help with the prediction of future development in the national economy. Business Tendency Survey is one of the most essential and favourite tools for predictions in economic statistics. The article aims to determine which confidence indicators help predict the Czech economic development and which base of the confidence indicators is the best for making predictions. Using the Granger causality test, we prove the Business Tendency Survey indicators are beneficial for predictions. The economic sentiment indicator and the confidence indicator for industry predict the gross value added better than the gross domestic product. The long-term average is a slightly better base than the base indices. The predictions are most accurate in the horizon of two quarters. Individual composite indicator for the industry well predicts both the industrial production index (for the next month) and the gross value added in the industry (for the next quarter).https://www.czso.cz/documents/10180/125507865/32019720q3_ptackova_analyses.pdf/18a97bb7-6764-4e36-a874-00d35909adc8?version=1.1business tendency surveyprediction abilitygross domestic productbusiness cyclebase indices |
| spellingShingle | Veronika Ptáčková Jakub Fischer Can the Business Tendency Survey Predict the Economic Indicators in Czechia? Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal business tendency survey prediction ability gross domestic product business cycle base indices |
| title | Can the Business Tendency Survey Predict the Economic Indicators in Czechia? |
| title_full | Can the Business Tendency Survey Predict the Economic Indicators in Czechia? |
| title_fullStr | Can the Business Tendency Survey Predict the Economic Indicators in Czechia? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can the Business Tendency Survey Predict the Economic Indicators in Czechia? |
| title_short | Can the Business Tendency Survey Predict the Economic Indicators in Czechia? |
| title_sort | can the business tendency survey predict the economic indicators in czechia |
| topic | business tendency survey prediction ability gross domestic product business cycle base indices |
| url | https://www.czso.cz/documents/10180/125507865/32019720q3_ptackova_analyses.pdf/18a97bb7-6764-4e36-a874-00d35909adc8?version=1.1 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT veronikaptackova canthebusinesstendencysurveypredicttheeconomicindicatorsinczechia AT jakubfischer canthebusinesstendencysurveypredicttheeconomicindicatorsinczechia |