Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling
In South Korea, despite the implementation of a universal single-dose vaccination program for children aged 12–15 months in 2005, the varicella incidence rate remains significant. Prior case-control studies have reported that currently used varicella vaccines are extremely inefficacious. We estimate...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2022.2085468 |
| _version_ | 1797673168633069568 |
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| author | Jiyeon Suh Jae-Ki Choi Jeehyun Lee Sun Hee Park |
| author_facet | Jiyeon Suh Jae-Ki Choi Jeehyun Lee Sun Hee Park |
| author_sort | Jiyeon Suh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In South Korea, despite the implementation of a universal single-dose vaccination program for children aged 12–15 months in 2005, the varicella incidence rate remains significant. Prior case-control studies have reported that currently used varicella vaccines are extremely inefficacious. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) by fitting a dynamic transmission model to age-specific varicella incidence data from 2007 to 2015 and available vaccine coverage data. The initial vaccine efficacy and primary failure rates were estimated to be 61.1% and 38.9%, respectively. The average duration of protection was 21.4 years. The mean VE [(1-relative risk) %] for the simulated data of 2004–2014 birth cohorts decreased from 59.8% to 50.7% over 9 years. This mathematical modeling study demonstrated that the single-dose vaccine exhibits moderate effectiveness, and a high proportion of primary failure could be a main cause of breakthrough infections. Therefore, a two-dose vaccination strategy should be considered. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T21:40:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b2e986525d714f259fdaf664f3f177a7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2164-5515 2164-554X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T21:40:56Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics |
| spelling | doaj.art-b2e986525d714f259fdaf664f3f177a72023-09-26T13:19:07ZengTaylor & Francis GroupHuman Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics2164-55152164-554X2022-11-0118510.1080/21645515.2022.20854682085468Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modelingJiyeon Suh0Jae-Ki Choi1Jeehyun Lee2Sun Hee Park3Yonsei UniversityThe Catholic University of KoreaYonsei UniversityThe Catholic University of KoreaIn South Korea, despite the implementation of a universal single-dose vaccination program for children aged 12–15 months in 2005, the varicella incidence rate remains significant. Prior case-control studies have reported that currently used varicella vaccines are extremely inefficacious. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) by fitting a dynamic transmission model to age-specific varicella incidence data from 2007 to 2015 and available vaccine coverage data. The initial vaccine efficacy and primary failure rates were estimated to be 61.1% and 38.9%, respectively. The average duration of protection was 21.4 years. The mean VE [(1-relative risk) %] for the simulated data of 2004–2014 birth cohorts decreased from 59.8% to 50.7% over 9 years. This mathematical modeling study demonstrated that the single-dose vaccine exhibits moderate effectiveness, and a high proportion of primary failure could be a main cause of breakthrough infections. Therefore, a two-dose vaccination strategy should be considered.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2022.2085468varicellamathematical modelingvaccine effectivenessimmunity waningsouth korea |
| spellingShingle | Jiyeon Suh Jae-Ki Choi Jeehyun Lee Sun Hee Park Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics varicella mathematical modeling vaccine effectiveness immunity waning south korea |
| title | Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling |
| title_full | Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling |
| title_short | Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling |
| title_sort | estimation of single dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in south korea using mathematical modeling |
| topic | varicella mathematical modeling vaccine effectiveness immunity waning south korea |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2022.2085468 |
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