Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation
Vaccination is an important epidemic intervention strategy. However, it is generally unclear how the outcomes of different vaccine strategies change depending on population characteristics, vaccine mechanisms and allocation objective. In this paper we develop a conceptual mathematical model to simul...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000362 |
| _version_ | 1797801727268749312 |
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| author | Isobel R. Abell James M. McCaw Christopher M. Baker |
| author_facet | Isobel R. Abell James M. McCaw Christopher M. Baker |
| author_sort | Isobel R. Abell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Vaccination is an important epidemic intervention strategy. However, it is generally unclear how the outcomes of different vaccine strategies change depending on population characteristics, vaccine mechanisms and allocation objective. In this paper we develop a conceptual mathematical model to simulate strategies for pre-epidemic vaccination. We extend the SEIR model to incorporate a range of vaccine mechanisms and disease characteristics. We then compare the outcomes of optimal and suboptimal vaccination strategies for three public health objectives (total infections, total symptomatic infections and total deaths) using numerical optimisation. Our comparison shows that the difference in outcomes between vaccinating optimally and suboptimally depends on vaccine mechanisms, disease characteristics, and objective considered. Our modelling finds vaccines that impact transmission produce better outcomes as transmission is reduced for all strategies. For vaccines that impact the likelihood of symptomatic disease or dying due to infection, the improvement in outcome as we decrease these variables is dependent on the strategy implemented. Through a principled model-based process, this work highlights the importance of designing effective vaccine allocation strategies. We conclude that efficient allocation of resources can be just as crucial to the success of a vaccination strategy as the vaccine effectiveness and/or amount of vaccines available. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:54:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b2f3100c1ff545889d4ca623f82ef53c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:54:53Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-b2f3100c1ff545889d4ca623f82ef53c2023-06-18T05:03:04ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272023-06-0182539550Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocationIsobel R. Abell0James M. McCaw1Christopher M. Baker2School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Melbourne Centre for Data Science, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Corresponding author. School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The Royal Melbourne Hospital and the University of Melbourne, Melbourne, AustraliaSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Melbourne Centre for Data Science, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, AustraliaVaccination is an important epidemic intervention strategy. However, it is generally unclear how the outcomes of different vaccine strategies change depending on population characteristics, vaccine mechanisms and allocation objective. In this paper we develop a conceptual mathematical model to simulate strategies for pre-epidemic vaccination. We extend the SEIR model to incorporate a range of vaccine mechanisms and disease characteristics. We then compare the outcomes of optimal and suboptimal vaccination strategies for three public health objectives (total infections, total symptomatic infections and total deaths) using numerical optimisation. Our comparison shows that the difference in outcomes between vaccinating optimally and suboptimally depends on vaccine mechanisms, disease characteristics, and objective considered. Our modelling finds vaccines that impact transmission produce better outcomes as transmission is reduced for all strategies. For vaccines that impact the likelihood of symptomatic disease or dying due to infection, the improvement in outcome as we decrease these variables is dependent on the strategy implemented. Through a principled model-based process, this work highlights the importance of designing effective vaccine allocation strategies. We conclude that efficient allocation of resources can be just as crucial to the success of a vaccination strategy as the vaccine effectiveness and/or amount of vaccines available.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000362Mathematical modellingEpidemiology |
| spellingShingle | Isobel R. Abell James M. McCaw Christopher M. Baker Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation Infectious Disease Modelling Mathematical modelling Epidemiology |
| title | Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation |
| title_full | Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation |
| title_fullStr | Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation |
| title_short | Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation |
| title_sort | understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation |
| topic | Mathematical modelling Epidemiology |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000362 |
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