Seeing the forest through the trees: Applications of species distribution models across an Australian biodiversity hotspot for threatened rainforest species of Fontainea
Southern Fontainea (Fontainea australis) and Coastal Fontainea (F. oraria) are two closely-related, rare plant species endemic to the subtropical rainforests of central, eastern Australia. Both species have threatened conservation status, with their contemporary and projected distribution poorly kno...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989423000112 |
| _version_ | 1811162760633909248 |
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| author | Aaron J. Brunton Gabriel C. Conroy David S. Schoeman Maurizio Rossetto Steven M. Ogbourne |
| author_facet | Aaron J. Brunton Gabriel C. Conroy David S. Schoeman Maurizio Rossetto Steven M. Ogbourne |
| author_sort | Aaron J. Brunton |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Southern Fontainea (Fontainea australis) and Coastal Fontainea (F. oraria) are two closely-related, rare plant species endemic to the subtropical rainforests of central, eastern Australia. Both species have threatened conservation status, with their contemporary and projected distribution poorly known. We aimed to use species distribution models (SDMs) to identify (1) the potential range under current conditions, (2) suitable habitat area conserved in protected areas and (3) responses under future environmental conditions of the species. Using a presence-pseudo-absence approach, and a set of bioclimatic variables, combined with topographic factors, we modelled the spatial dynamics of Southern Fontainea and Coastal Fontainea. We present comparisons among regression (GLM) and Random Forest (RF) SDMs for current and projected future conditions under low (SSP 1–2.6) and high (SSP 5–8.5) emission scenarios for the period 2081–2100 from an ensemble of three CMIP6 climate models. On-ground surveys verified the contemporary distribution of Southern Fontainea across the study extent. GLM-and RF-based models identified similar areas of suitable habitat under current conditions, but both models indicated that less than half of the suitable Southern Fontainea habitat is under protected tenure. GLM-based SDMs suggest an expansion of suitable areas of Southern and Coastal Fontainea under both low-and high-emission climate projections. By contrast, RF-based SDMs indicated a moderate increase of suitable habitat under future climate projections. The steep slopes and gullies of the mountain ranges, which span the Queensland and New South Wales border of central, eastern Australia, seem likely to provide long-term, stable climate refugia for Southern Fontainea. Models generated under current conditions identified novel areas that could support undiscovered populations of Southern and Coastal Fontainea. These findings have significant conservation implications for the critically endangered Coastal Fontainea, which is projected to lose suitable habitat under a high-emission climate scenario. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T06:34:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b2fb82a84fc94fbbbd6c3c1998dcd97e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2351-9894 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T06:34:21Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| spelling | doaj.art-b2fb82a84fc94fbbbd6c3c1998dcd97e2023-03-01T04:31:48ZengElsevierGlobal Ecology and Conservation2351-98942023-04-0142e02376Seeing the forest through the trees: Applications of species distribution models across an Australian biodiversity hotspot for threatened rainforest species of FontaineaAaron J. Brunton0Gabriel C. Conroy1David S. Schoeman2Maurizio Rossetto3Steven M. Ogbourne4Centre for Bioinnovation, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4556, Australia; School of Science, Technology and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4556, Australia; Corresponding author at: Centre for Bioinnovation, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4556, Australia.Centre for Bioinnovation, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4556, Australia; School of Science, Technology and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4556, AustraliaGlobal-Change Ecology Research Group, School of Science, Technology and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD, Australia; Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South AfricaResearch Centre for Ecosystem Resilience, Australian Institute of Botanical Science, Royal Botanic Garden Sydney, NSW 2000, AustraliaCentre for Bioinnovation, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4556, Australia; QBiotics Group, Yungaburra, QLD 4884, AustraliaSouthern Fontainea (Fontainea australis) and Coastal Fontainea (F. oraria) are two closely-related, rare plant species endemic to the subtropical rainforests of central, eastern Australia. Both species have threatened conservation status, with their contemporary and projected distribution poorly known. We aimed to use species distribution models (SDMs) to identify (1) the potential range under current conditions, (2) suitable habitat area conserved in protected areas and (3) responses under future environmental conditions of the species. Using a presence-pseudo-absence approach, and a set of bioclimatic variables, combined with topographic factors, we modelled the spatial dynamics of Southern Fontainea and Coastal Fontainea. We present comparisons among regression (GLM) and Random Forest (RF) SDMs for current and projected future conditions under low (SSP 1–2.6) and high (SSP 5–8.5) emission scenarios for the period 2081–2100 from an ensemble of three CMIP6 climate models. On-ground surveys verified the contemporary distribution of Southern Fontainea across the study extent. GLM-and RF-based models identified similar areas of suitable habitat under current conditions, but both models indicated that less than half of the suitable Southern Fontainea habitat is under protected tenure. GLM-based SDMs suggest an expansion of suitable areas of Southern and Coastal Fontainea under both low-and high-emission climate projections. By contrast, RF-based SDMs indicated a moderate increase of suitable habitat under future climate projections. The steep slopes and gullies of the mountain ranges, which span the Queensland and New South Wales border of central, eastern Australia, seem likely to provide long-term, stable climate refugia for Southern Fontainea. Models generated under current conditions identified novel areas that could support undiscovered populations of Southern and Coastal Fontainea. These findings have significant conservation implications for the critically endangered Coastal Fontainea, which is projected to lose suitable habitat under a high-emission climate scenario.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989423000112Protected areasEcological niche modellingGondwana rainforestBiodiversity hotspotClimate changeRare species |
| spellingShingle | Aaron J. Brunton Gabriel C. Conroy David S. Schoeman Maurizio Rossetto Steven M. Ogbourne Seeing the forest through the trees: Applications of species distribution models across an Australian biodiversity hotspot for threatened rainforest species of Fontainea Global Ecology and Conservation Protected areas Ecological niche modelling Gondwana rainforest Biodiversity hotspot Climate change Rare species |
| title | Seeing the forest through the trees: Applications of species distribution models across an Australian biodiversity hotspot for threatened rainforest species of Fontainea |
| title_full | Seeing the forest through the trees: Applications of species distribution models across an Australian biodiversity hotspot for threatened rainforest species of Fontainea |
| title_fullStr | Seeing the forest through the trees: Applications of species distribution models across an Australian biodiversity hotspot for threatened rainforest species of Fontainea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seeing the forest through the trees: Applications of species distribution models across an Australian biodiversity hotspot for threatened rainforest species of Fontainea |
| title_short | Seeing the forest through the trees: Applications of species distribution models across an Australian biodiversity hotspot for threatened rainforest species of Fontainea |
| title_sort | seeing the forest through the trees applications of species distribution models across an australian biodiversity hotspot for threatened rainforest species of fontainea |
| topic | Protected areas Ecological niche modelling Gondwana rainforest Biodiversity hotspot Climate change Rare species |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989423000112 |
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