Modeling the transmission of COVID-19 in the US – A case study
We propose a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The model incorporates both human-to-human and environment-to-human transmission pathways, and employs different transmission rates to represent the epidemiological characteristics at different time periods. Using...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272030110X |
| _version_ | 1827279145899393024 |
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| author | Chayu Yang Jin Wang |
| author_facet | Chayu Yang Jin Wang |
| author_sort | Chayu Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We propose a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The model incorporates both human-to-human and environment-to-human transmission pathways, and employs different transmission rates to represent the epidemiological characteristics at different time periods. Using this model and publicly reported data, we perform a case study for Hamilton County, the fourth-most populous county in the state of Tennessee and a region that could represent the typical situation of COVID-19 in the United States (US). Our data fitting and simulation results show that the environment may play an important role in the transmission and spread of the coronavirus. In addition, we numerically simulate a range of epidemic scenarios and make near-term forecasts on the development and trend of COVID-19 in Hamilton County. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:15:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b318733a3f3e4ccbac0e1f7c2256855a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:15:17Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-b318733a3f3e4ccbac0e1f7c2256855a2024-04-17T04:31:21ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272021-01-016195211Modeling the transmission of COVID-19 in the US – A case studyChayu Yang0Jin Wang1Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USADepartment of Mathematics, University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN, 37403, USA; Corresponding author.We propose a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The model incorporates both human-to-human and environment-to-human transmission pathways, and employs different transmission rates to represent the epidemiological characteristics at different time periods. Using this model and publicly reported data, we perform a case study for Hamilton County, the fourth-most populous county in the state of Tennessee and a region that could represent the typical situation of COVID-19 in the United States (US). Our data fitting and simulation results show that the environment may play an important role in the transmission and spread of the coronavirus. In addition, we numerically simulate a range of epidemic scenarios and make near-term forecasts on the development and trend of COVID-19 in Hamilton County.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272030110XCOVID-19 transmissionMathematical modelingData fitting |
| spellingShingle | Chayu Yang Jin Wang Modeling the transmission of COVID-19 in the US – A case study Infectious Disease Modelling COVID-19 transmission Mathematical modeling Data fitting |
| title | Modeling the transmission of COVID-19 in the US – A case study |
| title_full | Modeling the transmission of COVID-19 in the US – A case study |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the transmission of COVID-19 in the US – A case study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the transmission of COVID-19 in the US – A case study |
| title_short | Modeling the transmission of COVID-19 in the US – A case study |
| title_sort | modeling the transmission of covid 19 in the us a case study |
| topic | COVID-19 transmission Mathematical modeling Data fitting |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272030110X |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chayuyang modelingthetransmissionofcovid19intheusacasestudy AT jinwang modelingthetransmissionofcovid19intheusacasestudy |