Evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, Nigeria
Abstract This study develops a general method to evaluate the contributions of localized urbanization and global climate change to long-term urban land surface temperature (ULST) change. The method is based on the understanding that long-term annual ULST is controlled by three factors: (1) localized...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2022-08-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18193-w |
| _version_ | 1818498098478972928 |
|---|---|
| author | Liying Guo Liping Di Chen Zhang Li Lin Fei Chen Alamin Molla |
| author_facet | Liying Guo Liping Di Chen Zhang Li Lin Fei Chen Alamin Molla |
| author_sort | Liying Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study develops a general method to evaluate the contributions of localized urbanization and global climate change to long-term urban land surface temperature (ULST) change. The method is based on the understanding that long-term annual ULST is controlled by three factors: (1) localized urbanization, (2) global climate change, and (3) interannual climate variation. Then the method removes the interannual climate fluctuations on long-term observed LST time series via linear regression and separates the contributions of urbanization and climate change to the impacts on long-term ULST via urban–rural comparison. The method is applied to Lagos, a fast-growing metropolis in the tropical West Africa, as an example for reference. Combined time-series daily daytime and nighttime MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data over the years of 2003–2021 are used as the representation of land surface temperature. To avoid the potentioal interannual data biase due to uneven availability of data in the rainy seasons over years, only MODIS LST data from dry seasons are used in the study. The results are summarized as follows for Lagos: (1) long-term annual ULST is confirmed to be controlled by the three factors; (2) the proposed method can separate the contribution of the three factors to the ULST; (2) both localized urbanization and global warming are verified to contribute to the ULST increase with positive trends; (3) daytime ULST increased the most in the afternoon time at a mean rate of 1.429 °C per decade, with 0.985 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by urbanization and 0.444 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by climate warming; (4) nighttime ULST in Lagos increased the most after midnight at a rate of 0.563 °C (10 year)−1, with 0.56 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by urbanization and 0.003 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by climate warming; and (5) urbanization is generally responsible for around 60.97% of the urban warming in Lagos. Therefore, the increasing urbaniztion-induced urban heat island effect is the major cause for more heat-related health risks and climate extremes that many urban residents are suffering. The results of this study are of useful reference for both urbanization and climate change related issues in the geo-science field. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T18:53:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b32f08572cd946bd96fb1dea52b38ef7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T18:53:43Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-b32f08572cd946bd96fb1dea52b38ef72022-12-22T01:37:14ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-08-0112111110.1038/s41598-022-18193-wEvaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, NigeriaLiying Guo0Liping Di1Chen Zhang2Li Lin3Fei Chen4Alamin Molla5Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems, George Mason UniversityCenter for Spatial Information Science and Systems, George Mason UniversityCenter for Spatial Information Science and Systems, George Mason UniversityCenter for Spatial Information Science and Systems, George Mason UniversityNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchCenter for Spatial Information Science and Systems, George Mason UniversityAbstract This study develops a general method to evaluate the contributions of localized urbanization and global climate change to long-term urban land surface temperature (ULST) change. The method is based on the understanding that long-term annual ULST is controlled by three factors: (1) localized urbanization, (2) global climate change, and (3) interannual climate variation. Then the method removes the interannual climate fluctuations on long-term observed LST time series via linear regression and separates the contributions of urbanization and climate change to the impacts on long-term ULST via urban–rural comparison. The method is applied to Lagos, a fast-growing metropolis in the tropical West Africa, as an example for reference. Combined time-series daily daytime and nighttime MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data over the years of 2003–2021 are used as the representation of land surface temperature. To avoid the potentioal interannual data biase due to uneven availability of data in the rainy seasons over years, only MODIS LST data from dry seasons are used in the study. The results are summarized as follows for Lagos: (1) long-term annual ULST is confirmed to be controlled by the three factors; (2) the proposed method can separate the contribution of the three factors to the ULST; (2) both localized urbanization and global warming are verified to contribute to the ULST increase with positive trends; (3) daytime ULST increased the most in the afternoon time at a mean rate of 1.429 °C per decade, with 0.985 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by urbanization and 0.444 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by climate warming; (4) nighttime ULST in Lagos increased the most after midnight at a rate of 0.563 °C (10 year)−1, with 0.56 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by urbanization and 0.003 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by climate warming; and (5) urbanization is generally responsible for around 60.97% of the urban warming in Lagos. Therefore, the increasing urbaniztion-induced urban heat island effect is the major cause for more heat-related health risks and climate extremes that many urban residents are suffering. The results of this study are of useful reference for both urbanization and climate change related issues in the geo-science field.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18193-w |
| spellingShingle | Liying Guo Liping Di Chen Zhang Li Lin Fei Chen Alamin Molla Evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, Nigeria Scientific Reports |
| title | Evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, Nigeria |
| title_full | Evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, Nigeria |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, Nigeria |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, Nigeria |
| title_short | Evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, Nigeria |
| title_sort | evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change a case study in lagos nigeria |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18193-w |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT liyingguo evaluatingcontributionsofurbanizationandglobalclimatechangetourbanlandsurfacetemperaturechangeacasestudyinlagosnigeria AT lipingdi evaluatingcontributionsofurbanizationandglobalclimatechangetourbanlandsurfacetemperaturechangeacasestudyinlagosnigeria AT chenzhang evaluatingcontributionsofurbanizationandglobalclimatechangetourbanlandsurfacetemperaturechangeacasestudyinlagosnigeria AT lilin evaluatingcontributionsofurbanizationandglobalclimatechangetourbanlandsurfacetemperaturechangeacasestudyinlagosnigeria AT feichen evaluatingcontributionsofurbanizationandglobalclimatechangetourbanlandsurfacetemperaturechangeacasestudyinlagosnigeria AT alaminmolla evaluatingcontributionsofurbanizationandglobalclimatechangetourbanlandsurfacetemperaturechangeacasestudyinlagosnigeria |