Climate Change Impacts on the Energy System of a Climate-Vulnerable Mediterranean Country (Greece)
Climate change is expected to significantly affect countries in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, causing higher-than-average temperature increases, considerable reductions in rainfall and water runoff, and extreme events such as heatwaves. These pose severe threats to local energy system...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/286 |
| _version_ | 1797242156555960320 |
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| author | Elena Georgopoulou Sevastianos Mirasgedis Yannis Sarafidis Christos Giannakopoulos Konstantinos V. Varotsos Nikos Gakis |
| author_facet | Elena Georgopoulou Sevastianos Mirasgedis Yannis Sarafidis Christos Giannakopoulos Konstantinos V. Varotsos Nikos Gakis |
| author_sort | Elena Georgopoulou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is expected to significantly affect countries in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, causing higher-than-average temperature increases, considerable reductions in rainfall and water runoff, and extreme events such as heatwaves. These pose severe threats to local energy systems, requiring a reliable and quantitative risk analysis. A methodological approach is thus proposed which covers both energy supply and demand, utilizing the latest climate projections under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and an appropriate scale for each energy form. For energy supply technologies, risks are assessed through statistical regression models and/or mathematical equations correlating climatic parameters with energy productivity. To analyze climate risks for energy demand, bottom–up models were developed, integrating both behavioral and policy aspects which are often considered in a very limited way. The results show that climate change will mainly affect electricity generation from hydroelectric and thermal power plants, with variations depending on the plants’ locations and uncertainties associated with precipitation and runoff changes. The climate risks for solar and wind energy were found to be low. Energy consumption will also be affected, but the range of risks depends on the ambition and the effectiveness of measures for upgrading the thermal performance of buildings and the intensity of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:34:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b334ff9eb1194ecda4a031d2fc689337 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:34:45Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-b334ff9eb1194ecda4a031d2fc6893372024-03-27T13:20:36ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-02-0115328610.3390/atmos15030286Climate Change Impacts on the Energy System of a Climate-Vulnerable Mediterranean Country (Greece)Elena Georgopoulou0Sevastianos Mirasgedis1Yannis Sarafidis2Christos Giannakopoulos3Konstantinos V. Varotsos4Nikos Gakis5Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, GreeceFACE<sup>3</sup>TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, GR-11471 Athens, GreeceClimate change is expected to significantly affect countries in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, causing higher-than-average temperature increases, considerable reductions in rainfall and water runoff, and extreme events such as heatwaves. These pose severe threats to local energy systems, requiring a reliable and quantitative risk analysis. A methodological approach is thus proposed which covers both energy supply and demand, utilizing the latest climate projections under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and an appropriate scale for each energy form. For energy supply technologies, risks are assessed through statistical regression models and/or mathematical equations correlating climatic parameters with energy productivity. To analyze climate risks for energy demand, bottom–up models were developed, integrating both behavioral and policy aspects which are often considered in a very limited way. The results show that climate change will mainly affect electricity generation from hydroelectric and thermal power plants, with variations depending on the plants’ locations and uncertainties associated with precipitation and runoff changes. The climate risks for solar and wind energy were found to be low. Energy consumption will also be affected, but the range of risks depends on the ambition and the effectiveness of measures for upgrading the thermal performance of buildings and the intensity of climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/286climate changeimpactsenergypower generationdemandrepresentative concentration pathways |
| spellingShingle | Elena Georgopoulou Sevastianos Mirasgedis Yannis Sarafidis Christos Giannakopoulos Konstantinos V. Varotsos Nikos Gakis Climate Change Impacts on the Energy System of a Climate-Vulnerable Mediterranean Country (Greece) Atmosphere climate change impacts energy power generation demand representative concentration pathways |
| title | Climate Change Impacts on the Energy System of a Climate-Vulnerable Mediterranean Country (Greece) |
| title_full | Climate Change Impacts on the Energy System of a Climate-Vulnerable Mediterranean Country (Greece) |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change Impacts on the Energy System of a Climate-Vulnerable Mediterranean Country (Greece) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change Impacts on the Energy System of a Climate-Vulnerable Mediterranean Country (Greece) |
| title_short | Climate Change Impacts on the Energy System of a Climate-Vulnerable Mediterranean Country (Greece) |
| title_sort | climate change impacts on the energy system of a climate vulnerable mediterranean country greece |
| topic | climate change impacts energy power generation demand representative concentration pathways |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/286 |
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