Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate
Abstract Precipitation extremes are expected to intensify under climate change with consequent impacts in flooding and ecosystem functioning. Here we use station data and high‐resolution simulations from the WRF convection permitting climate model (∼4 km, 1 h) over the US to assess future changes in...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001824 |
| _version_ | 1811344521111273472 |
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| author | Yiannis Moustakis Simon Michael Papalexiou Christian J Onof Athanasios Paschalis |
| author_facet | Yiannis Moustakis Simon Michael Papalexiou Christian J Onof Athanasios Paschalis |
| author_sort | Yiannis Moustakis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Precipitation extremes are expected to intensify under climate change with consequent impacts in flooding and ecosystem functioning. Here we use station data and high‐resolution simulations from the WRF convection permitting climate model (∼4 km, 1 h) over the US to assess future changes in hourly precipitation extremes. It is demonstrated that hourly precipitation extremes and storm depths are expected to intensify under climate change and what is now a 20‐year rainfall will become a 7‐year rainfall on average for ∼ 75% of gridpoints over the US. This intensification is mostly expressed as an increase in rainfall tail heaviness. Statistically significant changes in the seasonality and duration of rainfall extremes are also exhibited over ∼ 95% of the domain. Our results suggest more non‐linear future precipitation extremes with shorter spell duration that are distributed more uniformly throughout the year. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T19:48:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b35a03af29c240d587cd356d803ea98e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T19:48:30Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-b35a03af29c240d587cd356d803ea98e2022-12-22T02:32:38ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772021-03-0193n/an/a10.1029/2020EF001824Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer ClimateYiannis Moustakis0Simon Michael Papalexiou1Christian J Onof2Athanasios Paschalis3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Imperial College London London UKDepartment of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon CanadaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering Imperial College London London UKDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering Imperial College London London UKAbstract Precipitation extremes are expected to intensify under climate change with consequent impacts in flooding and ecosystem functioning. Here we use station data and high‐resolution simulations from the WRF convection permitting climate model (∼4 km, 1 h) over the US to assess future changes in hourly precipitation extremes. It is demonstrated that hourly precipitation extremes and storm depths are expected to intensify under climate change and what is now a 20‐year rainfall will become a 7‐year rainfall on average for ∼ 75% of gridpoints over the US. This intensification is mostly expressed as an increase in rainfall tail heaviness. Statistically significant changes in the seasonality and duration of rainfall extremes are also exhibited over ∼ 95% of the domain. Our results suggest more non‐linear future precipitation extremes with shorter spell duration that are distributed more uniformly throughout the year.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001824climate changeconvection‐permitting modelsrainfall extremesrainfall intensificationrainfall seasonality |
| spellingShingle | Yiannis Moustakis Simon Michael Papalexiou Christian J Onof Athanasios Paschalis Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate Earth's Future climate change convection‐permitting models rainfall extremes rainfall intensification rainfall seasonality |
| title | Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate |
| title_full | Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate |
| title_fullStr | Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate |
| title_short | Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate |
| title_sort | seasonality intensity and duration of rainfall extremes change in a warmer climate |
| topic | climate change convection‐permitting models rainfall extremes rainfall intensification rainfall seasonality |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001824 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yiannismoustakis seasonalityintensityanddurationofrainfallextremeschangeinawarmerclimate AT simonmichaelpapalexiou seasonalityintensityanddurationofrainfallextremeschangeinawarmerclimate AT christianjonof seasonalityintensityanddurationofrainfallextremeschangeinawarmerclimate AT athanasiospaschalis seasonalityintensityanddurationofrainfallextremeschangeinawarmerclimate |