Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections
The Pacific region of Colombia is known to be one of the most vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns. A study was conducted using standardized precipitation index (SPI) analyses to understand the potential changes in precipitation in this region during the 21st century. The analyses were co...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/2/260 |
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| author | Deepak Chaulagain Oscar Fernando Meneses Aroca Noel Ngando Same Abdulfatai Olatunji Yakub Benyoh Emmanuel Kigha Nsafon Dongjun Suh Jin Mi Triolo Jeung-Soo Huh |
| author_facet | Deepak Chaulagain Oscar Fernando Meneses Aroca Noel Ngando Same Abdulfatai Olatunji Yakub Benyoh Emmanuel Kigha Nsafon Dongjun Suh Jin Mi Triolo Jeung-Soo Huh |
| author_sort | Deepak Chaulagain |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Pacific region of Colombia is known to be one of the most vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns. A study was conducted using standardized precipitation index (SPI) analyses to understand the potential changes in precipitation in this region during the 21st century. The analyses were conducted using historical precipitation data from 1950 to 2005 and projected precipitation data from 2022 to 2100 under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results of the study showed that compared to historical data, SPI3 precipitation in this region is predicted to increase by 2040 under both climatic scenarios. However, in the 2041–2070 period, the region is expected to be wetter under RCP 8.5, although the difference between the two scenarios was not statistically significant. Similarly, SPI 6 precipitation is predicted to increase in the 2022–2040 and 2071–2100 periods under both scenarios. SPI 12 precipitation is also predicted to increase in the 2022–2040 period under RCP 4.5. In the 2041–2070 period, dryness is predicted to be more frequent under RCP 4.5, and wetness is predicted under RCP 8.5. The findings of this study can help in determining the most pertinent reference periods and computation time increments for evaluating the effects of future climate change on agricultural production and food security in the Pacific region of Colombia. It suggests that changes in precipitation patterns are likely to occur in the coming decades, which may significantly impact crop growth, water availability, and other aspects of agricultural production. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T09:11:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b3b0338a70414601a7b88de66d8e3ae9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T09:11:16Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-b3b0338a70414601a7b88de66d8e3ae92023-11-16T19:02:20ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-01-0114226010.3390/atmos14020260Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate ProjectionsDeepak Chaulagain0Oscar Fernando Meneses Aroca1Noel Ngando Same2Abdulfatai Olatunji Yakub3Benyoh Emmanuel Kigha Nsafon4Dongjun Suh5Jin Mi Triolo6Jeung-Soo Huh7Department of Convergence & Fusion System Engineering, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Sangju 37224, Republic of KoreaInstitute for Global Climate Change & Energy, Department of Energy Convergence and Climate Change, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Convergence & Fusion System Engineering, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Sangju 37224, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Convergence & Fusion System Engineering, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Sangju 37224, Republic of KoreaInstitute for Global Climate Change & Energy, Department of Energy Convergence and Climate Change, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Convergence & Fusion System Engineering, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Sangju 37224, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Energy Engineering, Future Convergence Technology Research Institute, Gyeongsang National University, 33 Dongjin-ro, Jinju 52828, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Convergence & Fusion System Engineering, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Sangju 37224, Republic of KoreaThe Pacific region of Colombia is known to be one of the most vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns. A study was conducted using standardized precipitation index (SPI) analyses to understand the potential changes in precipitation in this region during the 21st century. The analyses were conducted using historical precipitation data from 1950 to 2005 and projected precipitation data from 2022 to 2100 under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results of the study showed that compared to historical data, SPI3 precipitation in this region is predicted to increase by 2040 under both climatic scenarios. However, in the 2041–2070 period, the region is expected to be wetter under RCP 8.5, although the difference between the two scenarios was not statistically significant. Similarly, SPI 6 precipitation is predicted to increase in the 2022–2040 and 2071–2100 periods under both scenarios. SPI 12 precipitation is also predicted to increase in the 2022–2040 period under RCP 4.5. In the 2041–2070 period, dryness is predicted to be more frequent under RCP 4.5, and wetness is predicted under RCP 8.5. The findings of this study can help in determining the most pertinent reference periods and computation time increments for evaluating the effects of future climate change on agricultural production and food security in the Pacific region of Colombia. It suggests that changes in precipitation patterns are likely to occur in the coming decades, which may significantly impact crop growth, water availability, and other aspects of agricultural production.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/2/260droughtextreme eventsprecipitationCORDEXclimate changerepresentative concentration pathways |
| spellingShingle | Deepak Chaulagain Oscar Fernando Meneses Aroca Noel Ngando Same Abdulfatai Olatunji Yakub Benyoh Emmanuel Kigha Nsafon Dongjun Suh Jin Mi Triolo Jeung-Soo Huh Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections Atmosphere drought extreme events precipitation CORDEX climate change representative concentration pathways |
| title | Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections |
| title_full | Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections |
| title_fullStr | Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections |
| title_short | Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections |
| title_sort | extreme dry and wet events in the pacific region of colombia estimated in the 21st century based on the standardized precipitation index and cordex climate projections |
| topic | drought extreme events precipitation CORDEX climate change representative concentration pathways |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/2/260 |
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