An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production
In today's competitive dynamic world/markets, providing a desirable framework for exploring future perspectives is a crucial challenge to support robust decision making and proper policy making. This research proposes a novel framework that develops plausible future energy scenarios through the...
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| Format: | Article |
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Semnan University
2019-04-01
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| Series: | مجله مدل سازی در مهندسی |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://modelling.semnan.ac.ir/article_3810_799c0a27ca5a5f56d5a68c4ca9832f39.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797296553165062144 |
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| author | Abbas Sheykhan Reza Hafezi Mehdi Omrani Amir Naser akhavan Ahmad Saeedi |
| author_facet | Abbas Sheykhan Reza Hafezi Mehdi Omrani Amir Naser akhavan Ahmad Saeedi |
| author_sort | Abbas Sheykhan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In today's competitive dynamic world/markets, providing a desirable framework for exploring future perspectives is a crucial challenge to support robust decision making and proper policy making. This research proposes a novel framework that develops plausible future energy scenarios through the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique. As a new method in scenario planning, FCM model attempts to present a set of rational, reliable and credible plausible scenarios together with analyzing dynamic behaviors of parameters. The integrated FCM-based approach encompasses STEEP analysis to identify parameters, Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) to determine key drivers, Morphological analysis for scenario selection, and FCM model to develop semi-quantitative scenarios. This new approach for scenario development brings together the benefits of both quantitative and qualitative analysis and it is not limited to the investigation of few pre-defined scenario drivers. As a research case, the proposed methodology is examined to detect plausible trends for Iran's oil production in the post sanction era. The implemented FCM simulations indicate that in three scenarios oil production increases and growth will be significant in the first two scenarios. The fourth projection is the most pessimistic scenario that can be imagined in the post-sanction era where the country faces massive investment backlogs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T22:06:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b3bb7dbd118048fe86a9ea0b5e2e8581 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2008-4854 2783-2538 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T22:06:25Z |
| publishDate | 2019-04-01 |
| publisher | Semnan University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | مجله مدل سازی در مهندسی |
| spelling | doaj.art-b3bb7dbd118048fe86a9ea0b5e2e85812024-02-23T19:06:03ZfasSemnan Universityمجله مدل سازی در مهندسی2008-48542783-25382019-04-01175615716810.22075/jme.2018.11503.11203810An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil ProductionAbbas Sheykhan0Reza Hafezi1Mehdi Omrani2Amir Naser akhavan3Ahmad Saeedi4Department of Industrial Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, IranTechnology Foresight group, Department of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), Tehran, Iran.Mechanical Engineering Department, Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, IranTechnology Foresight Group, Department of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), Tehran, Iransama Technical vocational school Islamic Azad University, Arak Branch, Arak, IranIn today's competitive dynamic world/markets, providing a desirable framework for exploring future perspectives is a crucial challenge to support robust decision making and proper policy making. This research proposes a novel framework that develops plausible future energy scenarios through the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique. As a new method in scenario planning, FCM model attempts to present a set of rational, reliable and credible plausible scenarios together with analyzing dynamic behaviors of parameters. The integrated FCM-based approach encompasses STEEP analysis to identify parameters, Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) to determine key drivers, Morphological analysis for scenario selection, and FCM model to develop semi-quantitative scenarios. This new approach for scenario development brings together the benefits of both quantitative and qualitative analysis and it is not limited to the investigation of few pre-defined scenario drivers. As a research case, the proposed methodology is examined to detect plausible trends for Iran's oil production in the post sanction era. The implemented FCM simulations indicate that in three scenarios oil production increases and growth will be significant in the first two scenarios. The fourth projection is the most pessimistic scenario that can be imagined in the post-sanction era where the country faces massive investment backlogs.https://modelling.semnan.ac.ir/article_3810_799c0a27ca5a5f56d5a68c4ca9832f39.pdfscenario planningfuzzy cognitive mapiranpost-sanctionoil production |
| spellingShingle | Abbas Sheykhan Reza Hafezi Mehdi Omrani Amir Naser akhavan Ahmad Saeedi An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production مجله مدل سازی در مهندسی scenario planning fuzzy cognitive map iran post-sanction oil production |
| title | An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production |
| title_full | An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production |
| title_fullStr | An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production |
| title_short | An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production |
| title_sort | integrated model to develop semi quantitative scenarios using a hybrid method based on fuzzy cognitive map a case study of iranian oil production |
| topic | scenario planning fuzzy cognitive map iran post-sanction oil production |
| url | https://modelling.semnan.ac.ir/article_3810_799c0a27ca5a5f56d5a68c4ca9832f39.pdf |
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